Tale of the Tape 

Hola Amigos!

Nifty (+0.7%) and Sensex (+0.8%) shrugged off two days of losses to end higher ahead of Trump’s big tariff announcement later today. PS - check out our top story on the different scenarios that could play out and how markets will react. Midcaps (+1.6%) and Smallcaps (+1.1%) saw strong buying. 373 stocks in the NSE 500 ended higher.

It was a wave of green across sectors. Real Estate (+3.6%) was the top gainer, followed by FMCG (+1.1%) and NBFCs (+0.9%).

Tata Consumer jumped +7% after Goldman Sachs’s bullish call. More details below on the stock’s bull case.

Retail stocks were on fire. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Bharat Electronics (-3%) was the top Nifty loser after missing its FY25 revenue guidance.

Waaree Energies dropped -4% after Macquarie said it sees a further -16% downside from current levels. Nestle India (-1%) also was in focus after a double downgrade by BoFA.

Business updates. Adani Ports (+2%) logged its highest-ever monthly cargo in March 2025. Bharat Dynamics (+6%) will end FY25 with a record Rs 3,300 cr topline.

Godrej Properties gained +5% after its Noida luxury residential project sold 275 flats totalling Rs 2,000 cr.

PSU Banks were under pressure. Punjab & Sind Bank and Central Bank of India cracked over -10% each.

Here are the closing prints:

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Market
T-Day Is Here!

Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ is upon us! FYI - in less than 24 hours, we’ll get details of America's reciprocal tariffs. We don’t know what’s coming, but it won’t be pretty. Here’s a rundown of the possible scenarios:

1) Base Case: Trump could go tit-for-tat, raising tariffs in each sector to the same level that India slaps on American imports. If this happens, gems & jewelry, electronics, chemicals, pharma and seafood will be hurt the most. This sounds bad, but it can be dealt with. Take pharma, where there’s a ~11% tariff differential. America's pharma exports to India are just $800 million whereas we export ~$9 billion to the US. That means we can cut our pharma tariffs without harming other industries. PS - this is the base scenario as it’s been mostly priced in by markets! 

2) Bear Case: Now, a sectoral approach is a lot of work. Which is why some reports say Trump is considering a straight 10% or 20% tariff on a country across ALL sectors. This would be easiest for him to implement, but this would be the worst-case scenario. Emkay estimates that a 10% broad tariff would see our exports fall by $6 billion. If it’s 20%, the fall could be ~$31 billion. To put this in context, we exported $78 billion in goods to the US in FY24. Naturally, this would be bad for markets!

3) Bull Case: The GOI was hoping that we could secure an exemption from the tariffs altogether. It’s why we offered some sops (Harley Davidson tariff cuts) and are negotiating a trade deal with the US. If we’re exempted, it’s great. But there’s no sign that we will get this relief!

Big Picture: Be wary, but don’t panic. After all, even in the most bearish scenario, India will negotiate an FTA by 2025-end. That means we’ll have to live with these tariffs for a couple quarters at best. PS - we’ve covered the impact on pharma, chemicals and auto components here. And remember, always check what the company says. It’s possible they have ways to get around the tariffs like manufacturing more in the US!

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