Tale of the Tape 

Hola Amigos! 

Markets zoomed today on the back of heavyweight buying, with the Nifty and Sensex up +1.2% each. Midcaps (+0.6%) and Smallcaps (+0.4%) saw slightly smaller gains. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bulls (3:2).

Except Real Estate (-1%) and IT (-0.1%), all other sectors ended in the green. Metals (+2.3%) led the rally, followed by Oil & Gas (+1.8%) and Banks (+1%).

Vodafone Idea has racked up big gains in the last week. Is the stock high on hype or fundamentals? Read our top story below to find out.

Indogulf Cropsciences IPO kicked off today. Check out our analysis below to help you decide whether to subscribe.

Mobikwik, Western Carriers and Dr Reddy’s saw big moves today. Look at their charts below to find out why.

Reliance Industries (+2%) market cap crossed the Rs 20 lakh cr mark.

Nykaa (+1%) launched its quick-commerce platform Nykaa Now in 60 cities. More details here.

Lloyd Metals (+2%) received GOI environmental clearance to expand its iron ore mining capacity to 55 million tonnes per annum.

Texmaco gained +3% after bagging a Rs 535 cr wagon supply order in Cameroon.

HDB Financial IPO sailed through on Day 2 of bidding.

Stock
What An Idea Sir Ji!

Vodafone-Idea has zoomed +14% in the past five days on hopes of a potential relief from the GOI. We’ve been here before many, many times. So let’s separate the hype from reality. Here’s what you need to know:

The problem: The biggest chunk of VI’s dues are ‘adjusted gross revenue’ (AGR) repayments. That’s around Rs 84,000-cr as of March 2025. Out of this, it owes Rs Rs 18,000-cr by the end of FY26. Unfortunately for Vodafone, it has only ~Rs 9,900-cr in cash & bank balances. It’s planning to raise money, but it clearly needs help.

Bailout hopes: Reports say the GOI is considering two options. The first is to increase the AGR repayment timeline to 20 years vs 6 years currently. And secondly, charge simple interest instead of compound interest. This would make its burden manageable. The second option is to just accept a token amount and decide what to do about the AGR mess later. PS - the Supreme Court would not be happy with the latter option.

Now, VI says it’s received no GOI communication on possible relief, but the stock is still going up. Why? This is because telecom minister Jyotiraditya Scindia made it clear India could not afford a duopoly (aka Airtel & Jio) in the telecom sector. FYI - GOI jumped on the VI ship when it took a 49% stake; if the company goes down, the govt loses the most.

Zooming out: Just because VI may get AGR relief, it doesn't mean its fundamentals are solid. It’s still reporting over Rs 7,000-cr in quarterly losses and 600k users left its services in April despite expanding its 4G & 5G services. Sure, it may seem easy to make quick money every time there is some positive news. But analysts say be wary about making a long-term bet on the stock.