Tale of the Tape 

Hi ya’ll. The weekend could not have come any sooner.

Nifty (-1.5%) and Sensex (-1.2%) nosedived, tracking a global markets selloff and worries over a US recession. Midcaps (-2.9%) and Smallcaps (-3.6%) got KO-ed. A whopping 457 stocks in the NSE 500 ended in the red. Check out the Stocktwits Sentiment Meter:

Except NBFCs (+0.2%), all other sectors ended lower or flat. Metals (-6.6%) got absolutely murdered, while Pharma (-4%) and Energy (-3.7%) saw deep cuts.

What is Trump trying to do and how will it hurt India? Read our top story to understand WTF is going on.

Bajaj Finance, Yes Bank and DMart saw big moves after their Q4 biz updates. More details below.

ONGC and Oil India cracked -7% each after Brent crude fell below $70 per barrel. Upstream firms don’t like low oil prices, which is why RIL was down -3% too.

Brokerage reactions. Tata Motors sank -6% after CLSA downgraded the stock, citing Trump’s auto tariffs. FYI - CLSA cut its target price to Rs 765 p/sh vs Rs 930 p/sh earlier. Meanwhile, Bharat Forge was down -8% after a double downgrade from Morgan Stanley.

Tata Steel (-8%) was the top Nifty loser, leading the metals selloff. PS - lower global growth = lower demand for metals.

Sun Pharma (-4%) led the pharma stocks rout today after Trump promised the sector would be hit with massive tariffs.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders tanked -7% after the GOI said it would sell a 4.8% stake; the floor price was fixed at a -8% discount to Thursday’s close.

Here are the closing prints:

Market
Tough Times Ahead

Trump’s tariff blitz wiped out a MASSIVE $2.4 trillion from the S&P 500 in one day. FYI - this event will shape the rest of 2025 for us as investors. So it’s important to understand WTF is going on. Here’s what you need to know:

1) Why is Trump doing this? The US president says an unfair global trading system has pulled  manufacturing jobs away from America. Like all things Trump, there's some truth combined with a LOT of misunderstanding. Yes, America has low tariffs and nations like China have abused the system. But it's not a coincidence that some of the poorest countries in the world have high tariffs. Take Bangladesh: its citizens can’t afford to buy expensive American goods, but they can export cheap garments to the US. Raising tariffs on Bangladeshi imports will do NOTHING to help the US unless Americans want to work on Bangladeshi salaries to make clothes!

2) So what will happen? Even if some companies choose to build more plants in the US, that’s all long-term. In the short-term, everything from cars to iPhones is going to get more expensive in America. Consumers will buy less, and combined with job losses, it will push the US into a recession. JP Morgan now sees a 60% chance of a global recession in 2025 vs 40% earlier! If the US economy tanks, it's taking the world with it. 

3) Is India immune? Nope, Goldman Sachs has cut its GDP forecast to 6.1% vs 6.3% for FY26. This is a rough blow because after a shaky FY25, things were supposed to be better this year! Analysts were hopeful to get past our growth slowdown, see consumption & capex return and India Inc earnings improve. But all of sudden the outlook is very cloudy indeed.

TL;DR: Trump is trying to reboot the global economy. Whether you agree with him or not, there's a 60% chance of a global recession. And India and its markets will be dragged down too.

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Ashish Kacholia Portfolio Changes

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