Tale of the Tape 

Good evening everyone!

The pre-budget rally is well and truly here, with Nifty (+1.1%) and Sensex (+1%) gaining for a fourth straight session. Midcaps (+1.9%) and Smallcaps (+2.1%) popped off as well. PS - 409 stocks in the NSE 500 ended higher.

Not a single sector ended in the red. Energy (+2.6%), FMCG (+2%) and Real Estate (+1.9%) were the top gainers.

What should you expect in tomorrow’s Union Budget? Read our top story for how the market’s mood usually gets impacted and for Axis Securities' top picks.

Jindal Steel cracked -6% on rough Q3 numbers. Meanwhile, Nestle India was up +4% on a volume beat. More details below.

Ola Electric, Tata Consumer Products and Wockhardt saw some big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Defence stocks were on fire ahead of the FM’s budget speech. Garden Reach Shipbuilders, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics and Cochin Shipyard were up +6%-+7%.

Whirlpool of India cracked another -10% today over its promoter stake sale shitshow. PS - the stock is down -27% in the last week.

Q3 reactions. Navin Fluorine (+6%) gained after its profit beat estimates; PS - Jefferies has upgraded the stock. Meanwhile, Kalyan Jewellers jumped +14% on a strong Q3 show; has the market stopped worrying about rumours?

Dr. Agarwals Healthcare IPO sailed through on the final day.

Here are the closing prints:

Market
Stocks & Budget ❤️📈

The Union Budget will be unveiled tomorrow! Most experts believe that it will be a key catalyst for the market’s mood, which tbh has been in the dumps. There’s a lot to unpack here, so let’s get into.

First off, what you really want to know: how well does the market do in the week after the budget? Historical data from the last 15 years shows that the Nifty ended in the green 10 times out of 15 with average gains of ~3%. The biggest one-week gains were in 2010 (+4.1%), 2013 (+4.4%), 2016 (+7.1%) and 2021 (+5.8%). But wait, there’s more good news. 3 out of 4 times when Nifty had a negative 1-month return prior to the budget, we ended up rallying 7% in the following 3 months! Of course, this isn’t a permanent boost, as more important factors eventually take over.

So what are we expecting this time? Analysts say watch out for consumption-boosting measures, higher capex spending and key tariff changes (in response to recent moves by China & Trump). Here’s a quick look at Axis Securities’s top sectoral & stock picks.

1) FMCG & Retail: Income tax cuts, especially at the <Rs 20 LPA level, should boost urban consumption which has sucked lately. The brokerage’s top picks here are Britannia, Dabur and Vishal Mega Mart.

2) Metals: The GOI recently slapped anti-dumping duties on key steel products from China & Vietnam, which has helped local players. Analysts expect further action on this front in the Budget and believe that import duties on raw material will also be reduced! Axis is bullish on SAIL, Hindalco and Tata Steel.

3) Banks: Higher capex spending in FY26 should act as a trigger for corporate credit growth! Any bump up in capex will help lenders, who are already desperately waiting for a rate cut. PS - reports say the GOI could announce some relief on the microfinance front, which could help asset quality across the board! The brokerage is positive on SBI, HDFC Bank and CreditAccess Grameen.

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Budget 2025 Stock Picks

Budget week is here!!! Check out our latest video where we discuss top 5 investment ideas by SEBI RAs that can gain big time from this year’s budget.