Tale of the Tape 

Good evening everyone.

Nifty and Sensex ended marginally in the red after recovering from the day’s lows. Midcaps (-0.2%) saw muted losses, while Smallcaps (-1.6%) took a hit. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bears (3:2).

It was a mixed-bag kinda day for sectors. IT (+1%) and Oil & Gas (+0.5%) saw the most buying. FMCG (-0.9%) and Auto (-0.6%) witnessed the most selling pressure.

Q3 earnings season is over! Read our top story for India Inc’s report card and what it says about the market’s mood moving forward.

Feeling down about the recent correction? Some of the biggest investors are hurting too. More details below on the fall in their portfolios.

BHEL, Rategain Travel and Max Healthcare saw big moves today. Check out their charts below.

Block deals. Bharti Airtel was in focus after Sunil Mittal sold a 0.84% stake worth $967 million. TVS Supply Chain Solutions (+3%) gained after its promoter acquired 20 lakh shares.

NTPC (+3%) was up after reports said it was gearing up to invest $62 billion in a 30 GW nuclear power expansion.

Allcargo Terminals gained +6% after reporting a +11% YoY jump in January volumes.

Persistent Systems gained +5% after JPMorgan advised investors to ‘buy the dip’. PS - the brokerage sees a +24% upside from current levels.

Karnataka Bank (-2%) hit a 52-week-low after finding “deficiencies” in its review of cross-border UPI transactions.

Here are the closing prints:

Earnings
Q3 Earnings Report Card

India’s Q3 earnings season has wrapped up! Coming into this quarter, there were big expectations from bulls AND bears. And tbh, it’s been a mixed bag. Here’s what you need to know.

First off, the big picture stuff. This was the third successive quarter of single-digit earnings growth for the Nifty 50. Not great. That said, Nifty’s PAT growth of +5% YoY did end up meeting the Street’s modest estimates. BFSI, PSU banks, healthcare, telecom and real estate were the top performers, while commodities, some cyclicals and consumer sectors stunk up the place.

FYI -  the top earnings upgrades in FY26E were Bharti Airtel (9.2%) and Tata Motors (4.1%), while some of the downgrades included JSW Steel (-9.5%), Trent (-5.5%), and Dr. Reddy’s Labs (-5%).

In short: if you hoped the awful Q2 was a one-off and that we would bounce back in Q3, you’re outta luck. Festive demand didn’t compensate for broader urban consumption slump. And the rural uptick was slower than expected. Also, global factors hit industries like oil & gas and chemicals pretty hard.

Looking ahead, the picture is hazy. Most experts are pointing to a flurry of earnings downgrades as a sign of future weakness. For example: Motilal Oswal says earnings of 137 companies it covers were downgraded by >3%, while only 37 were upgraded by the same amount. PS - This upgrade-downgrade ratio is the worst since Q1FY21 for the brokerage.

Big Picture: Q3 earnings weren’t great. But the outlook needs to be tempered with a bunch of steps taken by authorities. The RBI has started a rate cut cycle and the GOI has delivered $12 billion in income tax cuts which should boost consumption! GOI capex is picking up, while corporates should start spending as well. We’ll have to see how this pans out.

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