Tale of the Tape 

Hello boys and girls. Markets were back in the red. 

Nifty and Sensex failed to recover from their opening lows. On the other hand, Midcaps (-0.5%) and Smallcaps (-0.8%) pared their losses as investors bought the dip. The market breadth continued to remain weak with over 2 stocks declining for every gainer. 

Except for FMCG (+1.8%), all the other sectors ended in the red. PSU Banks (-2.5%), IT (-2.2%) and Pharma (-1.9%) got beaten up the most. 

In a world gone haywire, Macquarie says your best bet is to go local— Check out their 3 India-first picks to ride out the chaos.

The RBI cut interest rates for a second time in a row. Read more on Guv Sanjay Malhotra’s assessment of the economy and how it will impact you below. 

TCS will report its Q4 results tomorrow. Here are the key things to watch out.

Glenmark Pharma cracked -6% intraday after the USFDA ordered the recall of 39 products from the American market. 

Interglobe Aviation will enter the hotels business after partnering with global hospitality giant Accor.

Vishal Mega Mart was under pressure after global brokerage firm Bernstein said it sees a further 12% correction from current levels! 

 Gold loan providers like Muthoot and IIFL Finance were volatile AF after RBI said they will rationalize draft gold loan guidelines.

Here are the closing prints:

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Stock
Macquarie’s Top Picks

The global economy is in turmoil and Trump seems in no mood to back down. In this crazy AF time, analysts say one way to weather the storm is to pick stocks that are domestic focused and insulated from the world! Here are Macquarie’s top three picks:

1) Bharti Airtel: The telecom giant has been killing it and is up +8% YTD. It's only international exposure is to Africa and it operates in an industry that really has nothing to do with Trump at all. On top of this, more telecom price hikes are in the offing which should drive higher ARPUs + margins. PS - the brokerage has a target price of Rs 1,800 p/sh.

2) Ultratech Cement: The overall sector is poised for an upswing in 2025-26 as price hikes lead to better margins. Amongst the broader pick, experts say UltraTech has industry-leading volume, is cleaning up its balance sheet and focusing on controlling costs through higher use of green energy! FYI - Macquarie sees its EBITDA growing at a CAGR of 25% over FY25-27 and sees a +15% upside to the stock.

3) GAIL: The big trigger is the ongoing hike in transmission costs. There should be a 10%-30% bump in prices for the core pipeline business by June. Fun fact: every Rs 20 hike in prices results in a Rs 3,400-cr per annum PAT bump. Finally, if India does buy more LNG from the US as part of reducing its trade surplus, it's actually a positive for GAIL, which should handle the contract, as it reduces price volatility. The brokerage has a target price of Rs 200 p/sh; +18% from current levels.

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