Black Monday šŸ“‰

 

Tale of the Tape 

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Nifty (-3.2%) and Sensex (-3%) nosedived after Trump’s tariff tantrum ripped through global markets. Midcaps (-3.6%) and Smallcaps (-3.9%) got KO-ed. A whopping 480 stocks in the NSE 500 ended lower. PS - the India VIX, aka the fear gauge, jumped +66%!

It was a sea of red across sectors. Metals (-6.8%) was the top loser, followed by Real Estate (-5.7%) and Auto (-3.8%).

Is Trump deliberately trying to trash global markets? Read our top story on how to separate conspiracy from reality.

Trent crashed -15% after a weak Q4 business update. Meanwhile, Siemens finally spinned off its energy biz. More details below.

Why are investors spooked over metals stocks? Check out their charts below to find out why.

Tata Motors cracked -5% after Jaguar Land Rover temporarily suspended exports to the US as it considered the implications of the new tariffs.

Delhivery gained +4% after it said it would acquire rival Ecom Express for a cool Rs 1,407 cr.

Crompton Greaves was one of the rare midcap stocks to close in the green. PS - Goldman Sachs sees a 45% upside from current levels. 

Jubilant Foodworks Q4 business update beat Street estimates. Stock pulled back sharply to end at day’s high. 

Zomato was in focus after its chief operating officer resigned.

Here are the closing prints:

Nifty

22,162

-3.2%

Sensex

73,138

-3.0%

Bank Nifty

49,860

-3.1%

Market
M.A.G.A → Make America Gareeb Again!

sad on a budget GIF

Global markets including India are MELTING as Trump’s tariff war sparks retaliatory action from China + EU. The US president seems in no mood to back down. In fact, he even shared a conspiracy video on social media, which claims this is all a part of his ā€œmaster planā€.

The video sums up all the crazy theories that have been making the rounds. All of it centres around Trump causing economic mayhem on purpose to serve a bigger goal. Here’s the crux of it:

  • When stock markets tank, the demand for bonds goes up. When this happens, yields come down.

  • This will allow the US govt’s borrowing costs to come down, for it to refinance national debt, allowing it to save billions of dollars in interest payments! Fun fact: the American govt has $7.2 trillion in debt repayment in 2025 which can be refinanced!

This is about 90% nuttiness and 10% truth. Yes, the 10-year Treasury yield did fall below 4% last week, which is good for US govt borrowing. But the picture is more complicated than that. Bond yields also respond to other factors including the budget deficit (which threatens to go up) and also the Federal Reserve’s stance (if it refuses to cut rates quickly, yields won't stay low). Finally, if investors believe Trump is gaming the system or he has to roll back tariffs, all of this will anyways stop the bond rally.

Big Picture: We have no way of knowing if Trump is doing this on purpose. But even if he is, it’s gambling with a LOT -- a potential recession, job losses and worldwide distrust in the US as a pillar of the the global economic system. It’s an insane risk to take which will burn everything to the ground if it doesn't pay off.

Is Trump deliberately trying to trash global markets?

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