Tale of the Tape 

Hola Amigos! 👋

Nifty (-0.2%) and Sensex (-0.2%) cooled off after hitting new all-time highs to end with minor cuts. Midcaps and Smallcaps were flat as well. The advance-decline ratio was evenly split. ✌️

It was a mixed-bag kinda day for sectors. Auto (+1.9%) and Real Estate (+1.4%) were the big winners. IT (-1.1%) and Metal (-1%) stocks got beat up the most. 🤕

Nifty Bank hit an all-time high this week. But not all big banks are winners. Read our top story below to understand the change in the market’s pecking order. 🥇

Trent (+3%) was up on a solid Q4 show. On the other hand, Indian Oil fell -4%. More details below. 📊

Jana Small Finance Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and Patanjali Foods all saw big movements today. Check out their charts below to find out why. 🚀

SBFC Finance cracked -5% after 6 crore shares, or a 5.6% stake, changed hands in a block deal; reports say the promoter was the likely seller. 🔍

KFin Technologies gained +6% after guiding for FY25 revenue growth of 15%-20%. 💰 

JNK India had a stellar market debut, ending the day at +67% over its IPO price of Rs 415 p/sh. 🤑

Manappuram Finance rallied +4% intraday after its subsidiary got a SEBI nod to launch an IPO. ✅

Linde India was in focus after SEBI ordered a probe into its related-party transactions. 🚨

Bajaj Consumer Care (+1%) will consider a share buyback proposal on May 8. 🔥

Here are the closing prints: 

Markets
Change Of Guard

India’s banking sector has been on a crazy roller coaster lately! Deposit wars, tough liquidity, a lack of rate cuts and strong RBI regulatory action are keeping investors on their toes. But at the same time, the Nifty Bank is at an all-time high! That doesn’t mean everyone’s a winner though. In fact, there’s been a shift in the industry’s pecking order in the eyes of the market at least. 😎

Here’s what you need to know:

1) Outperformers: ICICI (+26% over last year) and Axis (+34% over last year) have been CRUSHING it. Leadership changes at the banks, once a question mark when well-known CEOs resigned back in 2018-19, have mostly paid off. ICICI Bank has done better, even as Axis works to smoothen out the bumps in its Citi acquisition. But both lenders have weathered the storm better than their peers. 💪

2) Struggling giants: Once upon a time, you could blindly throw a dart at a sector’s top 5 biggest companies and make good returns. However, that’s no longer the case. HDFC Bank (-9% over last year) continues to struggle with its merger issues. Kotak Mahindra Bank (-15% over last year) is also in the same bucket. The lender has new leadership that nobody is sure will effectively solve the RBI’s red flags with its digital & credit card biz. 😣

3) PSU fever: State-run lenders came and blew everyone out of the water. Multiple years of reform (IBC, NPA review) helped clean their messy balance sheets. They don’t need to fight for deposits either and the GOI’s infra boost gives them steady loan growth. FYI - in FY24, the Nifty PSU Bank Index (+89%) easily beat the Nifty Private Bank index (+14%). While FY25 may see more tempered gains, they are no longer the ugly duckling of the sector. 💯

Specials

5 Stocks Under Rs 500 - By SEBI RAs

In this week’s video, we will walk through the Top 5 stocks to buy under Rs 500 recommended by SEBI RAs on Stocktwits.

In the video, we’ll break down the recommendations by SEBI RAs, covering both fundamental and technical analysis.

Earnings

Earnings Roundup

Trent (+4%) posted a strong set of Q4 numbers! Double-digit growth in its key fashion & apparel biz helped boost the top line. FYI - the company’s ‘fashion concepts’ saw LFL growth of +10% YoY. Cheaper raw material prices + steady operational expenses helped boost margins. Also, while its bottomline would’ve seen good growth no matter what, keep in mind that it was boosted MAJORLY due to a one-off gain of Rs 543 cr. This, the management said, is due to a re-assessment of its store lease liabilities. 💰

Here are its key stats:

• Revenue: Rs 3,187 cr; +53% YoY

• EBITDA: Rs 477 cr vs Rs 211 cr YoY

• EBITDA Margin: 15% vs 10.2% YoY

• PAT: Rs 654 cr vs Rs 105 cr YoY

Big Picture: Trent is doing well despite sluggish growth in other lifestyle retail + apparel companies. Some of this is due to great execution, but it's also due to diversification. Fun fact: its ‘emerging categories’ of beauty & personal care, innerwear and footwear now contribute to +20% of the standalone topline! FYI - Nuvama has also upped its target price to Rs 4,926 p/sh (vs Rs 4,304 earlier). 🆙

Trent is up +3x over the last year.

Indian Oil (-4%) Q4 results missed Street estimates. Weaker crude prices and demand in the first half of Q4 dented the top line and took a bite out of margins. FYI - gross refining margins came in at $8.41 per barrel, nearly half of one brokerage’s estimate of $15 per barrel. Refining throughput was also lower at 18.28 MMT, vs estimate of 17.5 MMT.  FYI - the PSU announced a final dividend of Rs 7 p/sh for FY24, but that did little to perk up the market mood. 💀

Here are its stats:

• Revenue: Rs 1.97 lakh cr; -40% QoQ (vs Est: Rs 2.09 lakh cr)

• EBITDA: Rs 10,345 cr; -33% QoQ (vs Est: Rs 15,488 cr)

• Margin: 5.3% vs 7.8% QoQ

• PAT: Rs 4,838 cr; -40% QoQ (vs Est: Rs 8,064 cr)

Indian Oil is up +2x over the last year. 🔥

Charts

Chartbusters

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Here are 3 stocks that went up and down today:

1) Jana Small Finance Bank JUMPED +19% intraday after its management said it would apply for a universal bank license by next year. The lender will meet the required RBI criteria by the end of this financial year after which it will apply. PS - it also reported a blockbuster Q4 performance. 🚀

2) M&M was the top Nifty gainer after launching its new compact SUV, the XUV 3XO. The Compact SUV is growing rapidly and experts say the new model is both aggressively priced (starts at Rs 7.49 lakh) AND a solid product with good features! 🚙

3) Patanjali Foods dropped after reports said it was under the scanner for GST evasion. But tbh, it’s down for a lot of reasons. Its parent firm is being bashed by the Supreme Court over misleading ads. For those that say it's completely separate, well, this comes at a time when Patanjali Foods is looking to buy Patanjali Ayurved’s non-food biz! 🙈

Check out their charts below:

Links That Don’t Suck

💯 5 Stocks to Buy Under 500 | Stocks to Buy in 2024 | Best Stocks to Buy Right Now

💬 Stocktwits is hosting a free AMA with Investwith_Soni. Click to ask

🪙 Asia’s first spot bitcoin and ether ETFs debut in Hong Kong 

🙏 ‘I Was Jobless With Rs 3000 in My Pocket’: 26-YO’s Startup Journey Building Rs 8-Crore Ghee Biz

🏏 Samson, Chahal and Dube picked for T20 World Cup 

💉 AstraZeneca Makes Big U-Turn, Admits Covishield Can Cause Rare Side Effects

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