Tale of the Tape 

Hi ya’ll.

Nifty and Sensex ended flat after a mostly range-bound trading session. Ditto for midcaps and smallcaps. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bears (3:2).

It was an even mix of red and green for sectors. PSU Banks (+0.7%), Oil & Gas (+0.5%) and Metals (+0.3%) posted decent gains. FMCG (-0.7%) and IT (-0.3%) saw selling pressure.

Will India be able to secure a trade deal with the US? Read our top story to get all the deets.

We’re halfway through 2025! Let’s catch our breath and look at what’s worked and what hasn’t so far in the markets. More details below.

Gabriel India, Apollo Hospitals and Keystone Realtors saw big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Brokerage reactions. Reliance Industries was up +2% after Nuvama raised its target price to Rs 1,801 p/sh; +18% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, Dixon Technologies was down -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock.

Auto sales for June were a mixed bag. Mahindra & Mahindra and Eicher Motors did well, Tata Motors domestic numbers dropped -12% YoY. Check out the full list here.

Kalpataru had a meh market debut. The stock ended Rs 432 p/sh; +4% higher than its IPO price.

Sigachi Industries cracked another -6% today as the toll in its factory blast jumped to 39 dead. PS - reports say the Telangana govt is upset with the company.

NMDC (-3%) was under pressure after cutting iron ore prices by -9% amidst weaker demand.

Economy
1 “Big, Beautiful” Deal Please

India has ONE week left before Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs kick in! At stake: billions of dollars worth of exports across sectors. Here’s a quick look at how things stand and what we can expect by the July 9 deadline.

Recap time: India and the US actually kicked off talks for a broader trade agreement back in February. The original timeline was that the “first tranche” of a BTA would be negotiated by fall 2025. But after the 26% reciprocal tariffs were imposed in April, the GOI had to hurry things up. It now hopes to seal a “mini” trade-deal before the tariffs kick in next week.

State of play: So how are things going? Well, it depends on who you listen to. Trump and the White House say that a deal is right around the corner. India has been more cautious, with reports saying the US is trying to force us to open up our agriculture sector. In return, the US isn’t even promising to remove the baseline 10% tariff that currently applies to all countries! FYI - Indian negotiators are in Washington DC trying to resolve the roadblocks and it looks like things may go down to the wire.

Why should you care: There’s the micro stuff obviously. Higher tariffs are a big negative for formal sectors with listed companies like engineering goods or textiles. Unorganised industries like jewellery & seafood could also see job losses which sucks for the Indian economy. But more broadly, it’s awful for global economic growth and raises the fears of inflation ALL OVER AGAIN. 

Zooming out, there’s a couple bright spots. Electronics production should still stay solid, considering India’s tariffs are lower than both China & other rivals like Vietnam. So, do your homework and figure out how your top bets will be impacted.