Tale of the Tape 

Howdy folks. It was an absolute bloodbath in the markets today!

Nifty (-1.5%) and Sensex (-1.4%) fell for a 4th straight session as FII selling & a lack of future Fed rate cuts hurt sentiment. Midcaps (-4%) and Smallcaps (-4.1%) were also down big. A whopping 480 stocks in the NSE 500 ended in the red.

Not a single sector ended in the green. A massive sell-off in real Estate (-6.5%) led the fall, followed by Metals (-3.8%) and Energy (-3.3%)

The rupee hit a new low of 86.59; read our top story to find out WTF is going on.

Avenue Supermarts (-5%) fell after a disappointing Q3. Meanwhile, Just Dial plummeted -14% after its Q3 signalled a weak future outlook. More details below. 

PB Fintech, PCBL and Indian Oil all saw big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Listing gain. Standard Glass Lining ended the day at Rs 163 p/sh; +16% higher than its IPO price.

IREDA rallied +5% intraday before giving up all gains after announcing a Rs 4,500 cr QIP fundraise in Q4FY25.

Biocon (+1%) was in focus after USFDA gave a green regulatory signal to its Malaysia site.

Waaree Energies will acquire Enel Green Power in a deal valued at up to Rs 792 cr. PS - Enel Green has a 640 MWAC solar & wind portfolio.

Here are the closing prints:

Economy
Free Fall

The Indian Rupee hit a new all-time low of 86.45 against the US dollar! PS - in the last year alone it has lost over 4% of its value going from a little under 83 to now past the 86 mark. There’s a LOT to unpack here, so let’s get into it.

First off, why is it falling? The core principle is that when demand for the US dollar > the demand for rupee, the rupee will fall. And the dollar hit a two-year-high today on strong jobs data, which also signals a lack of future Fed cuts. Crude oil is also up +9% over the last month, breaching the $80 per barrel mark, which also puts pressure on the rupee.

Normally the RBI intervenes (by selling dollars or buying rupees) to make sure the rupee doesn't slide too much. While the former governor was strict about this, there are some signs the new chief is taking a more flexible approach. This partly explains the ramp-up in rupee volatility.

Most importantly, this affects the Indian economy & markets in three ways:

1) Inflation and imports: We import stuff using dollars, so when the rupee weakens, our imports become expensive. This sucks when it comes to importing oil as it has a cascading effect on the rest of the economy. FYI - this leads to a spike in inflation which is the last thing we need.

2) Exports: A weaker rupee helps our export competitiveness. IT, pharma, textiles are all big winners here. When global customers can buy more Indian goods & services for less money, it means bigger business for our exporters.

3) FII outflows: Generally speaking, there’s a link between the performance of the rupee and the stock market. Foreign investors take money out when the rupee is weak due to a range of factors.

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