Tale of the Tape 

Hola Amigos!

Markets snapped their six-day winning streak with the Nifty and Sensex ending down -0.4%. Midcaps and Smallcaps, also traded lower -0.2% each. 316 stocks in the NSE 500 ended in the red. Overall, markets closed up for a 4th straight week and were inches away from hitting new all-time highs. As things stand, October is turning out to be the best month for stocks since March. Let’s hope DJT doesn’t spoil that with any surprise announcements over the weekend. 

Most sectors ended in the red. Metals (+1%) bucked the market trend. FMCG (-0.8%) and Banks (-0.7%) came under selling pressure.

In today’s issue of the Daily Rip, we look at big banking deals and how it could shake up the sector, ITC Hotels and HUL’s Q2 results, the rally in defence stocks and more.

Honourable Mentions:

Thyrocare (+1%) was in focus after a promoter entity sold a ~10% stake in the company. Utkarsh SFB zoomed +17% after ace investor Madhusudan Kela’s fund participated in the firm’s rights issue.

Check out the NSE 500 heatmap:

Market
Deal Street

India’s banking sector is red-hot right now! ICYMI - global players have been lining up with big fat cheques. The latest transaction announced today was Blackstone buying a 10% stake in Federal Bank for ~Rs 6,200 cr. But this is the fifth big deal so far in 2025, with major implications for the industry. Here’s what you need to know.

Recap time: In the last five months, we’ve seen Japan’s Sumitomo pick up a 25% stake in Yes Bank, Emirates NBD buying RBL Bank, Bain Capital acquiring 18% in Manappuram and IDFC First & Sammaan Capital receiving funding from Warburg Pincus and Abu Dhabi’s IHC.

Who gets what: The combo is simple. Foreign players need growth and their home markets have dried up. So they bring in the capital, reputation and latest tech. Indian partners offer the local know-how and deal with regulators and the GOI.

Has this been done before?: Most peeps are too young to remember, but in the 2000s, global banks tried to grab a share of Indian savings. Standard Chartered, HSBC and Citi all gave it a shot but failed, eventually exiting with their hands burnt. India is NOT an easy market to crack. It takes patience and always involves catering to the lowest common denominator even though you want those high-value banking margins. Even ICICI walked back its minimum balance requirement of Rs 50k after major outrage. PS - even now, the foreign bank share of assets in the banking sectors is <5%.

Big Picture: So will the new model -- aka buying and not building -- succeed when previous attempts failed? It’s tough to say. There’s no doubt that Indian banking has a big runway. But ICICI and HDFC have that sh!t on lock. Analysts, however, say there’s plenty of room for many more Axis and Kotak-sized lenders which implies a big pop for Yes Bank, RBL and even IDBI (which will be privatised in FY26-27). Interesting times to say the least!

Stocktwits Specials
Top Diwali Picks By Brokerages

We’ve curated a list of top stock picks by broking houses like ICICI Direct, Axis Securities, Kotak Securities, SBI Securities and HDFC Securities. 

In less than 5 minutes, we’ll walk you through these top picks by brokerages with a timeframe of ~12 months and cover key fundamental, technical and news events surrounding these.