Tale of the Tape 

Howdy folks. Welcome back to the market of stocks!

Nifty and Sensex shrugged off worries over weak Q2 GDP data to close up +0.6% each. Read our top story below for all the details. Midcaps (+1.1%) and Smallcaps (+1%) popped off. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bulls (3:2). Check out the Stocktwits Sentiment Meter:

Most sectors ended in the green. Real Estate (+3%) led the pack, followed by Metals (+1.1%) and Auto (+1%). PSU Banks (-0.2%) saw minor cuts.

Dixon Technologies (+6%) soared after its Google Pixel manufacturing deal. More details below on how this sets it up for future growth. 

UltraTech Cement, Ola Electric and Anant Raj saw big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out more.

Reliance, ONGC and Oil India were in focus after the GOI scrapped windfall tax on petroleum products.

Block deal reactions. Cipla (-1%) was down after 1.39 cr shares (1.72% equity) changed hands in multiple deals; the promoters were the likely sellers. Home First Finance (+2%) was volatile AF after 9.8% equity was traded.

Petronet LNG (+1%) was up after UBS upgraded the stock and raised its target price to Rs 400 p/sh vs Rs 320 p/sh earlier.

MapMyIndia fell -4% over controversial plans to pick up a stake in a new B2C biz headed by its former CEO.

Cochin Shipyard was locked in a +5% upper circuit after announcing a Rs 1,000 cr + contract for a dry docking vessel from the Indian Navy. PS - the stock is +16% in the last 5 days!!! 

Biocon (+3%) gained after the USFDA approved its drug that helps fight Crohn’s disease.

Here are the closing prints:

Market
Buy The Fear?

India’s GDP data was a horror show! Growth came in at 5.4%, a seven-quarter-low and a lot  below analyst estimates. Brokerages quickly downgraded FY25’s growth outlook, with most experts forecasting 6%-6.5% vs the earlier ~7%. PS - the RBI’s delulu target of 7.2% for FY25 looks hilarious now. There is even talk of whether India will be able to maintain its fastest-growing major economy tag!

The rough part is that it was an all-around bad show. Industrial growth slowed (manufacturing & mining were stinkers). Overall consumption was subdued and would’ve been worse if rural demand hadn’t offset weak urban sales.

The good news is that markets don’t move by looking at the rear-view mirror! The Nifty was in the green today cuz this was already priced in. India Inc’s Q2 results were bad and many expected rough GDP numbers.

The even better news is that the future is looking decent. Most analysts expect a better H2, helped by rural demand, a strong Rabi sowing and a rebound in GOI capex spending. FYI - IIFL Capital expects high single-digit PAT growth for Nifty firms in H2 at the minimum.

It also helps that markets have corrected. We’ve gone from Nifty at 26k down to 24k. Valuations are saner now (with a few exceptions). While FIIs are still exiting, they went from an insane 94k cr in October to just Rs 26k cr in November. So the pace of sell-off has gone down, which is a positive!

Big Picture: Most analysts project a sideways market until H1 2025. Key triggers include a potential RBI cut and Trump’s tariff war. Goldman Sachs has a Nifty target of 27,000 by 2025-end, which isn’t too great but we’ll have to see how things play out. FWIW - that doesn’t mean there are no opportunities ahead. IIFL is bullish on the IT sector, pharma, hospitals, telecom and businesses with a big rural play. Place your bets accordingly!

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