Tale of the Tape 

Hiya everyone. Reminder - there's a special, two-hour trading session tomorrow! ⏰

Nifty and Sensex ended +0.3% each on heavyweight buying. Midcap (+0.9%) and Smallcaps (1.65%) fared much better. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bulls (4:1). 📈

Most sectors ended in the green. Auto (+1.7%), Real Estate (+1.7%) and Metals (+1.6%) saw the most buying. IT stocks (-0.8%) corrected sharply after yesterday’s up move. 💸

What are the main takeaways from the post-Covid bull cycle and how does that help us see the road ahead? Read our story below, with inputs from DSP Netra. 💯

Crompton Greaves (+15%) zoomed after a solid Q4 show. Meanwhile, Info Edge was up too after multiple brokerage updates. More details below. 📊

Mahindra & Mahindra (+6%) was the top Nifty gainer after Jefferies gave the stock its highest target price yet at Rs 2,910 p/sh. Dixon Technologies rallied +10% intraday after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock. ✅

PB Fintech (-1.5%) was in focus after 83.7 lakh shares, or 1.86% stake, exchanged hands through two block deals; the promoters were the likely sellers. 🔍

SpiceJet gained +5% after the Delhi HC set aside an order requiring it to pay Rs 270 cr to Kalanithi Maran. 👍

Go Digit General Insurance IPO sailed through on the final day of bidding. 🥳

Here are the closing prints: 

Markets
Money Flow

Election uncertainty and FII selling are keeping markets volatile AF! Yes, corrections could be just around the corner, but it’s important to remember how we got here. FYI - India is now the 2nd largest emerging equity market and accounts for 17.7% in the global emerging basket (vs 7.8% in 2020.) Understanding what happened in the last four years is crucial to understanding the road ahead: 🤓

1) Earnings boost: Stocks do shoot up sometimes on vague things like ‘potential’ and ‘sentiment’. But since Covid, India’s markets have rocketed due to cold, hard earnings. As DSP Netra notes, this was achieved by higher capex + increased utilisation, which boosted revenue growth and therefore profits! In fact, the earnings boom over the last four years has meant now that Nifty 500 companies have seen DOUBLE-DIGIT profit growth over a 20-year time frame. 💰

2) Covid-sectoral winners: A significant number of companies in sectors such as commodities, utilities and energy saw pretty great earnings growth. Cyclical companies have also done well in the market! On the other side, sectors like consumer discretionary, IT and FMCG have seen weak or flat profits. Which is why they’ve obviously underperformed. FYI - this is a small red flag as DSP Netra notes in its monthly market assessment report: “The prevalence of a bull market driven by cyclical companies introduces a degree of apprehension, as such markets are inherently prone to correction”. 👀

3) Road ahead: This is broadly why most experts say 2024 will be a ‘stock picker’s market’. Or in other words: you can’t blindly throw a dart and expect the stock to boom as you could have in 2022-2023. So what’s popping? Well, FMCG stocks are actually starting to see signs of a revival as the rural market bounces back. Analysts are also ‘cautiously’ optimistic about the start of a structural turnaround for the chemicals sector which has gone nowhere in the last year! 😇

​​For more details, check out the full report here: https://dspim.co/NetSWTW 

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

Specials

Raising A Toast

Can United Breweries go from being the King of good times to the King of your portfolio? Check out our latest YouTube video where we break down the company’s latest quarterly earnings, technical chart setup, brokerage ratings and more!

Earnings

Earnings Roundup

Info Edge (+7%) posted a decent set of Q4 results! Solid growth across real estate (99acres; +17% YoY) and matrimony (Jeevansathi +21%) verticals helped bump up the topline. Its core cash cow Naukri did okay-ish, growing at +4.5% YoY. Overall operating margins saw a slight bump up, helping the bottomline grow. 📊

Here are its key stats:

• Revenue: Rs 608 cr; +8% YoY

• EBITDA: Rs 247 cr; +12% YoY

• EBITDA Margin: 40.6% vs 39% YoY

• PAT: Rs 211 cr; +11% YoY

The stock also saw bullish market sentiment after both Kotak and Nuvama increased their target prices! Nuvama is more upbeat, with a target price of Rs 7,050 p/sh (vs Rs 6,500 p/sh earlier); a +13% upside from current levels. 🚀

Info Edge is up +63% over the last year.

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (+15%) Q4 results beat Street estimates! A scorching summer has pushed up sales in its core electrical consumer durables segment, which was up 14% YoY. The ECD top line growth was primarily driven by fans (+13%), pumps (+9% and appliances (+27%). While overall volumes for its lighting vertical were up, sales remained flat due to pricing pressures. FYI - the consolidated Q4 numbers are also hurt by its Butterfly division, which saw a bunch of one-time settlements and extraordinary items. 👍

Here are its key stats:

• Revenue: Rs 1,961 cr; +9.5% YoY (vs Est: Rs 1,953 cr)

• EBITDA: Rs 204 cr; -4% YoY

• EBITDA Margin: 10.4% vs 9.3% YoY

• PAT: Rs 133 cr; +1% YoY (vs Est: Rs 121 )

The management has also guided for up to Rs 1,000 cr capex for FY25, a big positive trigger. Beyond that, it also believes Butterfly’s performance will improve from June. It is optimistic about hitting double-digit margins from this division. 🔥

Crompton Greaves is +54% over the last year.

Charts

Chartbusters

Here’s a look at this week’s top NSE 500 mover. Hindustan Zinc (+29%) took the poll position for the third week in a row. Kaynes Technology (+26%) came in at a close second on the back of a strong Q4 show. Jupiter Wagons (+25%) hit a new all-time high. Check out their charts below: 📈 

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