Tale of the Tape 

Good evening everyone. Markets hit a new high today!

Nifty (+0.6%) and Sensex (+0.5%) ended higher on the first day of the new financial year. Midcaps (+1.7%) and Smallcaps (+3.3%) were on absolute fire! FYI - 417 stocks in the NSE 500 ended in the green today.

Most sectors ended in the green. Real Estate (+4.3%), Metals (+3.7%) and PSU Banks (+1.5%) were the stars of the show. Auto (-0.2%) and FMCG (-0.1%) saw minor cuts.

What does FY25 have in store for our stocks? Read our top story below on the factors that could make or break your portfolio.

BSE has been on a red, hot streak! More details below on its bull run and future positive triggers.

PNB Housing Finance (+20%) was the top gainer on the NSE 500 after Morgan Stanley said it sees +37% upside from current levels.

Metal stocks were on fire after China’s factory activity data hit a 13-month-high. JSW Steel (+5%) was the top Nifty gainer, Hindustan Copper (+11%) and Vedanta (+6%) also saw healthy gains.

GM Breweries gained +13% after it said it would consider issuing bonus shares on April 4.

Eicher Motors (-2%) March sales missed analyst estimates. Here’s a full list of how every auto company did last month.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders’ (+6%) FY24 sales hit an all-time high of Rs 3,400 cr.

Order wins. Torrent Power (+5%) won a Rs 1,825 cr wind power project. HAL rose 2% after inking a Rs 1,173 cr gas turbine deal with Cochin Shipyard.

Here are the closing prints: 

Market
FY25: What Lies Ahead?

FY25 is off to a flyer! Markets hit new all-time-highs today on the first trading day of the new financial year following in the footsteps of FY24. ICYMI - last year was an INSANE ride, with the Nifty gaining a whopping +30%. Nine out of the 12 months ended in the green; only two ended in the red. The Nifty also hit several milestones as it moved from 17k to 22k. That said, most experts say we need to be cautious with FY25: 👀

1) Elections and Budget: The BJP’s victory is more or less priced in. But what investors want to see is what the new GOI’s policy goals will be. It’s no secret that some renewable sectors have seen setbacks: a lack of proper EV subsidies, ‘reverse auctions’ for wind stocks etc. Also need to see whether the GOI retains focus on things like railways & defence. The first Union Budget in July should give us a roadmap and be a key positive or negative trigger. 📈

2) Rate cuts and FIIs: Everyone was excited when the Fed hit the pause button on rates, but now it’s clear we’re in for a ‘shallow’ rate cut cycle. Put simply: inflation is still a problem so expect smaller rate cuts that will come later rather than sooner. In India, optimists like Morgan Stanley say we may expect our first cut of 50 bps in June, while pessimists like CARE Ratings say wait till Q3 FY25. This affects rate-sensitive stocks like banks, auto, and housing obviously. But it also affects FII inflows into India! If rates are cut in the US, bond yields drop and more foreign money comes into India. 💸

3) Future targets: Most analysts have a Nifty target for 2024-end that ranges between 23,500 (Goldman Sachs) to 24,500 (ICICI Securities). But the key thing to note is the India story remains intact. GDP growth is on fire, infra spending is up and poverty is down. Vikas Khemani of Carnelian Asset Advisors sees Nifty at 100K by 2035! 🤯

Specials

Should You Buy HDFC Bank?

It's no surprise that HDFC Bank has been one of the biggest underperformers in recent years. But, is the worst priced in or is the more pain in the offing? We try to decode this in our recent video where we analyze the company’s fundamentals, technicals, brokerage view and SEBI RAs target.

Stock

Khelo India Khelo

BSE (+8%) has been on an absolute rocket ship! ICYMI - it was up nearly 6X in FY24, the BEST PERFORMING stock in the NSE 500. Even crazier, it’s showing no signs of slowing down. It’s up +20% over the last week and hit a record high today. So, what the hell is going on here? Here’s all you need to know: 🔥

In one word: ‘derivatives’. BSE’s market share in this segment was basically nothing until April 2023. It now stands at 20%, with experts projecting it to hit 30% by FY26. It’s eaten into a monopoly held by NSE and shrugged off decades of underperformance, which is INSANE. A large part of this is due to its new CEO Sundararaman Ramamurthy, who joined in Jan 2023 from NSE lol. 🧑‍💼

FYI - derivative products are pretty lucrative and great for the bottomline. But BSE is still working out its clearing and settlement costs, which are 3X that of NSE. It’s already taken a price hike for its SENSEX contract in October 2023 and will do the same for BANKEX eventually. But, as economies of scale go up, BSE will start making a lot more money on derivatives. 💰

Beyond that, there are a bunch of other positive triggers. One big one is SEBI delaying NSE’s IPO over corporate governance issues. Investors wanting a piece of the action had no choice but to choose BSE. The recent T+0 settlement cycle will also hopefully see people making more trades and should help grow BSE’s volumes. FYI - HDFC securities have a price target of Rs 3,050 p/sh; +14% from current levels! 🚀

Unsurprisingly, the Stocktwits Sentiment Meter is in the “extremely bullish” territory. YOLO! 🤘 

Stocktwits Spotlight

Here’s a bullish chart setup by Avtar Singha aka aceadvisor on Ambuja Cements. Follow him for more amazing insights and add $AMBUJACEM.NSE to your watchlist and track the latest from the community.

Links That Don’t Suck

💯 Should You Buy HDFC Bank? | HDFC Bank Share | HDFC Bank Share Latest News 

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