Tale of the Tape 

Good evening everyone. Markets hit new all-time highs! 🚀

Nifty and Sensex zoomed +1.6% each as investors cheered the RBI’s massive dividend to the GOI. Midcaps (+0.5%) and Smallcaps (+0.2%) had a decent day too. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bulls (3:2). 🍻

Except for Pharma (-0.5%), all sectors ended in the green. Auto (+2.2%), Banks (2%) and IT (+1.3%) were the top winners today. 📈

Nervous about the election results and not sure what to do? Read our top story below for a quick cheat sheet on how to handle the volatility. 💯

ITC was flat after posting okay-ish Q4 numbers. Meanwhile, Garden Reach Shipbuilders jumped +19% after an amazing Q4 show. More details below. 📊

HEG, Lupin and GMM Pfaudler all saw big movements today. Check out their charts below to find out why. 🔥

Adani Enterprises (+8%) was the top Nifty gainer after reports indicated it could replace Wipro in the Sensex. 💪

Results reaction. Sun Pharma (-3%) was the top loser on the Nifty after its Q4 US sales came in below estimates. Power Grid fell -4% intraday after a weak Q4 show too. 💸

Go Digit General Insurance had an okay-ish market debut, ending at Rs 306 p/sh; +13% from its IPO price. 👍

Star Health Insurance (+2%) was in focus after 4.1 cr shares, (7.05% equity) changed hands in three big block deals; reports say existing foreign investors were the likely sellers. 🔍

KPI Green Energy (+1%)  announced a stock split in the ratio of 1:2. ✂️

Here are the closing prints: 

Markets
Elections & Markets

Ever since voting started a month ago, it feels like markets have been trapped in a box of uncertainty. Why is there low voter turnout? Why did PM Modi change the way he campaigns? And then, of course, the classic: What is Satta Bazaar saying? To help you cut through all that BS, here’s a quick, three-point cheat sheet on how to view this whole election process: 🤓

1) Don’t overthink outcomes: The last two decades show that there is no simple ‘better party wins = markets go up’ logic.  Markets were down right after the UPA-I won in 2004 and then went up after the UPA-II won in 2009. They also went up after the BJP won in 2014, but then were flat after Modi won a second term in 2019. Short-term reactions to election results have too many factors involved to make good predictions. 🎢

2) Global trends: There is a WAY better correlation between medium-term movements and how global markets perform. As analyst Nooresh Mehrani notes, since 2004, post-election movements of Indian markets have followed their global counterparts. So when UPA-I won in 2004, the Nifty was down right after the results but then moved upward as global markets rallied. Ditto for 2009 and 2014. In 2019, Indian markets fell in the months after the election results, just like the Dow, Nikkei, Hang Seng and the UK FTSE did. 🌎

3) 2024 crystal ball: There are two factors at play this year. Firstly, no matter what the BJP’s final seat total ends up being, global markets are on an upward trend. The US, UK, Japan and China have all been breaking out from the start of this year. There’s a good chance that Nifty & Sensex follow. Secondly, while India VIX has been inching upwards (currently at 21.4), it's still lower than what it was back in 2019 (23.2) and 2014 (a whopping 30.85). So take a chill pill!! 😎

Earnings

Earnings Roundup

ITC’s (+1%) Q4 results were in line with Street estimates. Volumes for its core cigarette biz was up 2%-3% (vs est: 0%-1%). But this was offset by a slump in its agri & paper segments, resulting in an overall flat topline. EBITDA margins took a slight dip due to higher costs across verticals. The hotel biz also did well, but missed estimates. FYI - they declared a final dividend of Rs 7.5 p/sh for FY24. 🤑

Here is its Q4 report card:

• Revenue: Rs 16,579 cr; +1% YoY (vs Est: Rs 16,992 cr)

• EBITDA: Rs 6,162 cr; -1% YoY (vs Est: Rs 6,310 cr)

• EBITDA Margin: 37.2% vs 37.9% YoY

• PAT: Rs 5,020 cr; -1% You (vs Est: Rs 5,115 cr)

Overall, the Q4 picture looks decent, even if it doesn’t show as much promise as some of its peers. The FMCG biz is good and more importantly, it has signaled a revival in rural demand! ✅

ITC is down -6% YTD.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders (+16%) BLOCKBUSTER Q4 results beat Street estimates. Strong defence demand from GOI boosted top line growth. Quicker project execution helped bump up margins & the bottomline. FYI - the company says most of its ongoing projects are at “maximum revenue recognition phase”. No wonder its quarterly revenue crossed the Rs 1,000 cr mark for the first time ever! 💰

Here are its key stats:

• Revenue: Rs 1,016 cr; +69% YoY (vs Est: Rs 824 cr)

• EBITDA: Rs Rs 166 cr; +84% YoY (vs Est: Rs 58 cr)

• EBITDA Margin: 8.9% vs 3.4% last year

• PAT: Rs 112 cr; +104% YoY

Chairman Hari PR said: “Backed by a strong order book and with our ongoing projects at a maximum revenue recognition phase, and also with more orders on the anvil, we are confident of sustained growth in the coming years too. Our focus continues to be on timely execution of ongoing projects… with specific impetus on development of autonomous and green energy platforms.”

GSRE is up over +2x over the last year. 🚀

Charts

Chartbusters

Here are three companies that saw BIG movements today:

1) HEG was the top loser on the NSE 500 after a weak Q4 show. Its bottomline crashed -67% YoY and margins hit their lowest level since 2021! FYI - the company plans to demerge its graphite biz (accounts for 94% of topline), which should help unlock value. But even that didn’t cheer up investors. 📉

2) Lupin cracked -7% intraday after its big US rival Amphastar said it received FDA approval for a new respiratory drug. FYI - ‘Albuterol’, which treats breathing issues, is the second biggest revenue contributor to Lupin’s US biz. Experts say Amphastar’s new albuterol drug could kick off a price war, which is a negative. 🚨

3) GMM Pfaudler was under pressure after posting disappointing Q4 numbers. A 14.5% YoY fall in topline and a 12% YoY decline in net profit brought its FY24 to a rough finish. For the unaware: the company supplies a lot of equipment to the chemicals & pharma sectors, both of which have gone through some turbulence. Experts say FY25 could be a lot better though. 🧪

Check out their charts below: 🔥

Links That Don’t Suck

👕 Guess The Stock and stand a chance to win free* merchandise (*T&C Apply)  

📱 Google to partner with Foxconn to manufacture Pixel smartphones in Tamil Nadu 

😋 Ink That Finger! This Bengaluru Restaurant Serves Free Dosas to Those Who Vote 

🔮 Indian Astrologer "Predicts" Exact Date World War 3 Will Start 

🏏 Watch: Guard of honour for Dinesh Karthik after RCB bow out

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