Tale of the Tape 

Howdy folks.

Markets barely moved today, with the Nifty and Sensex ending flat. Midcaps and Smallcaps were equally lifeless as we head towards the end of the year. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bears (3:2).

It was a mixed-bag kinda day for sectors. Auto (+0.8%) and Pharma (+0.7%) were the top gainers. FMCG (-0.3%) and Metals (-0.1%) saw minor cuts.

The Nifty FMCG Index is on track to close in the red for the first time in five years. Read our top story to understand what went wrong and what 2025 will look like.

Our 2025 stock series continues today! More details below on HDFC Securities’s top sectoral and company bets.

KFin Tech, Epack Durable and NTPC Green saw big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Mobikwik rallied over +8% intraday after 18.6 lakh shares (2.4% equity) changed hands in a block deal; the buyer and sellers were not known.

Jammu and Kashmir Bank (+4%) gained after appointing a new CEO & MD.

International Gemmological Institute of India was locked in a 10% upper circuit after acquiring 2 companies for $158 million (Rs 1,348 cr). 

Order wins. Ceigall India was up +3% after bagging a Rs 981 cr project from the NHAI. Panacea Biotech was up +4% after winning a UNICEF supply order worth Rs 127 cr.

Quess Corp was in focus after the Karnataka HC quashed a Rs 180 cr tax demand against the firm.

Unimech Aerospace IPO got oversubscribed +180x on the final day!

Here are the closing prints:

Stock
2024: An Unforgettable Year For FMCG Stocks

2024 was an awful year for the FMCG sector. The Nifty FMCG Index is set for its first negative year since 2019. ICYMI - many analysts predicted a great H2-2024 for the sector and pushed it as a ‘defensive’ choice after the Lok Sabha election result setback. So WTF happened and what does the outlook for 2025 look like?

First off, yes, there are company-specific issues. You don’t see a huge wipe across BAAP stocks without multiple issues at play. Asian Paints (-33% YTD) is on track for its worst-ever yearly performance partly due to competition from the Birlas. HUL (-12% YTD) is on course for its worst yearly performance in 21 years thanks to tough regional competition. And Titan (-8%), which will have its first negative year since 2016.

But that isn’t the full picture. What really screwed things up was the drop in urban consumption which was fully seen in the Q2 GDP figures that hit a seven-quarter low of 5.8%. The urban, middle-class economy is hurting. At the top, wealthy Indians are doing well and at the bottom, Indians in rural areas are better off than last year. But the big fat middle isn’t which is what's hurting the FMCG sector.

Zooming out, it’s not clear when things will get better. The GOI seems to be in a state of denial, with the FM only interested in raising taxes at a time when most experts agree some tax RELIEF is actually in order. There is no urban stimulus on the horizon and company-specific issues aren’t going away. Rate cuts should boost some consumption but unless food inflation is tamed, broader FMCG isn’t going to get better in the short-term.

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