Tale of the Tape 

Hiya everyone. It was a bad day for stocks.

Nifty (-0.9%) and Sensex (-0.6%) are on track to close lower for a third straight week; a first since Aug 2023. Midcaps (-1.7%) and Smallcaps (-1.2%) also got KO-ed. 429 stocks in the NSE 500 ended lower!

Except for IT (+1.2%), all other sectors ended in the red. Real Estate (-3.8%), Auto (-3.5%) and FMCG (-1.6%) saw the most selling.

Bajaj Auto (-13%) was the top NSE 500 loser after sending out a festive distress signal. Read our top story on what this means for the broader auto sector.

Can insurance stocks bounce back in 2025? More details below along with Asit Mehta’s top picks for the sector.

Nestle India, SRF and Mphasis saw big movements today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Reliance Industries was in focus after it declared October 28 as the record date for its 1:1 bonus issue.

Results reaction. CRISIL rallied +8% intraday before giving up gains after posting a +13% YoY bump in net profit. Kolte-Patil Developers was up +3% after reporting its highest-ever quarterly sales of Rs 770 cr (+22% YoY) for Q2.

Hyundai Motor India IPO sailed through on the final day of bidding. 

Titagarh Rail Systems (+3%) gained after Morgan Stanley picked up a 0.57% stake in a bulk deal.

Newly-listed Manba Finance soared +12% after it said it would consider issuing an interim dividend on October 24.

Here are the closing prints:

Stock
Bajaj Auto Gets Wrecked

Auto stocks CRASHED today after Bajaj Auto said festive sales for motorcycles aren’t looking that hot. The company admitted that its festive sales had grown around 1%-2% in October so far vs 5%-6% expected.

This means the broader season, which goes up till November and will include Diwali, could see sales growth of just 3%-5% vs industry estimates of ~8%. Yikes. Bajaj Auto nosedived -12%, taking Hero MotoCorp and TVS Motor down with it. 

This is a BIG deal. Two-wheeler sales were doing much better compared to passenger cars which really needed a festive bump. So with two-wheelers now facing weakness, it’s a big red flag for the broader auto sector. PS - the Nifty Auto Index was down -3% intraday.

This is also a bit of a surprise because multiple analysts had predicted solid festival sales based on their so-called channel checks. Nuvama said dealers had indicated “high expectations” for October-November and that its top picks were Hero and TVS. Kotak Institutional Equities had predicted more or less the same. 

Kotak’s new note now says: "Contrary to our expectations, the festive season has started on a weaker note and we do see a downside risk to the domestic two-wheeler industry growth assumptions if demand trends do not see a pick-up during the Diwali festival." Rough stuff.

TL;DR: Navratri hasn’t bailed out India’s auto sector just yet. Keep an eye out for Diwali which could surprise, but be prepared for a rocky ride.

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