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- Mid-Week Volatility!
Mid-Week Volatility!
Tale of the Tape
Hiya everyone. 👋
Nifty and Sensex went up and down in a range-bound session before ending the day with minor losses. Micaps (+1%) and Smallcaps (+0.6%) had a much better day. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bulls (3:2). 🐂
Check out the Stocktwits Sentiment Meter:
It was a mixed-bag kinda day for sectors. PSU Banks (+1.4%), Real Estate (+1%) and Oil & Gas (+0.6%) saw the most buying. FMCG (-0.9%) and Auto (-0.5%) witnessed some selling pressure. 📉
Siemens was up +6% after strong Q4 results. Meanwhile, Colgate Palmolive (India) was the top NSE 500 loser DESPITE good results. More details below. 📊
Biden is shooting down Chinese imports. Which Indian stocks will benefit the most? Find out below
Thermax. PB Fintech and Canara Bank were big winners of this quarter’s MSCI rejig. Check out their charts below.
TBO Tek had a bumper market debut, ending the day up +53% over its issue price. Meanwhile, Aadhaar Housing Finance closed at Rs 329 p/sh, +5% from its IPO price.
Aarti Industries cracked -5% after UBS issued a sell call on the stock
Cipla (+3.5%) gained after 2.04 cr shares, or 2.52% stake, changed hands in three big block deals; reports said the promoters were the likely sellers.
Results reaction. Oberoi Realty (+4%) hit a record high after its Q4 net profit jumped 64% YoY. PFC, too, gained +4% after a solid Q4 show.
Oil India (+2%) will consider issuing bonus shares on May 20.
Here are the closing prints:
Nifty | 22,201 | -0.1% |
Sensex | 72,987 | -0.2% |
Bank Nifty | 47,688 | -0.4% |
Earnings
Earnings Roundup
Siemens (+6%) Q2 results Street estimates! Strong growth across key infra verticals helped it post double-digit topline growth. Major productivity gains, aka lower employee costs, aided margins and the bottomline. FYI - Siemens follows an Oct-Sept financial year. The only (slightly) sour note: its order backlog was flat YoY. Overall inflows are slightly weak, with Siemens hinting at broader growth only in the latter half of the year. 📊
Here is its Q4 report card:
Revenue: Rs 5,750 cr; +18% YoY (vs Est: Rs 5,544 cr)
EBITDA: Rs 878 cr; +41% YoY (vs Est: Rs 697 cr)
EBITDA Margin: 15.3% vs 12.8% YoY
PAT: Rs 802 cr; +70% YoY ((vs Est: Rs 571 cr)
The stock also rallied after the company announced a capex of Rs 1,000-cr! This investment will go into different areas: expanding existing factories and setting up new metro train & bogie manufacturing facilities. Also, Siemens will demerge its energy biz (share entitlement ratio at 1:1). FYI - most analysts are bullish, with Antique Stock Broking & Nuvama upgrading their target prices and seeing a 5%-8% upside from current levels! 🔥
Colgate Palmolive India (-5%) Q4 results beat Street estimates! Domestic sales grew +11% YoY, helped by a revival in rural demand & strong growth in its toothpaste portfolio. Despite a jump in ad spending (+18% YoY), the company’s margins still expanded due to cost-saving measures. FYI - the company also announced a second interim dividend of Rs 26 p/sh + a special one-time dividend of Rs 10 p/sh. 🤑
Here is its Q4 report card:
Revenue: Rs 1,490 cr; +10% YoY (vs Est: Rs 1,486 cr)
EBITDA: Rs 532 cr; +18% YoY (vs Est: Rs 515 cr)
EBITDA Margin: 35.7% vs 33.5% last year (vs Est: 34.7%)
PAT: Rs 380 cr; +20% YoY (vs Est: Rs 365 cr)
Big Picture: Despite good Q4 numbers, Colgate ended up the top NSE 500 loser today. It partly fell due to profit-booking. FYI - the stock is up a cool +61% over the last year, easily beating most of its FMCG peers. There may also be a little nervousness that the company is going to focus on volumes over margins in FY25. This isn’t a huge issue, considering its margins are already great, but could’ve persuaded investors to book profits. 💸
Specials
Raising A Toast
Can United Breweries go from being the King of good times to the King of your portfolio? Check out our latest YouTube video where we break down the company’s latest quarterly earnings, technical chart setup, brokerage ratings and more!
Market
This Is Business
Will China’s loss end up being India’s gain? ICYMI - the United States has slapped MAJOR new tariffs on Chinese imports, ranging from EVs & advanced batteries to aluminum & medical equipment. The new tariffs kick in over the next three years, giving Indian companies plenty of time to take advantage. Here are the likely top winners: 😎
1) Solar panels: Higher duties on these products will start from 2024 itself. FYI - in the last few years, there has been a global oversupply of solar cells mostly due to Chinese dumping. While it may take a little while for this to normalize, it will open the doors for Indian solar cell makers. No wonder that Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy, Waree Renewable and Websol all hit a +5% upper circuit intraday! ⚡
2) Steel: Tariffs on Chinese steel & aluminum products are going up from 7.5% to a whopping 25%! This is big for Indian steel makers. The only problem though is that global steel demand is currently weak overall. The US market is estimated to see demand stabilise, but not too much. That said, this is yet another factor in the broader upcycle for metals that we are seeing in 2024! If it plays out, Tata Steel, SAIL, JSW Steel, Vedanta and Jindal Steel could be beneficiaries. 📈
3) Medical equipment: Biden is hiking duties across key medical products including syringes, needles, gloves and masks. FYI - the US is already the biggest export market for Indian firms in this sector, so this should help cement that edge. The biggest tariff bump will come into effect from 2026 though, so this is very much a future positive trigger. Key stocks like Poly Medicure could benefit here. 💉
Charts
Chartbusters
The MSCI quarterly rejig is here and with it the usual inclusions that boost the fortunes of some companies! FYI - 13 stocks have now been added to the MSCI Global Standard Index. ➕
PB Fintech currently stands to witness the maximum inflows of $283 million, according to estimates prepared by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Other companies including Canara Bank and Thermax are likely to receive inflows between $154-$185 million each. 💰
For the unaware: MSCI inclusions and exclusions are important because global investors use those indices to decide where to put their money! It’s not an automatic lottery ticket to major gains, but it’s good in the long run. 🤓
PB Fintech, Canara Bank and Thermax rallied +4%-+9% intraday. Check out their charts below: 🔥
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