Rollercoaster Wednesday 🎢

 

Tale of the Tape 

Howdy folks. Markets were volatile AF!

Nifty (-0.1%) and Sensex (-0.2%) pulled back sharply from the lows to end with minor cuts. PS - this the sixth straight day of losses, their longest decline in three months! Midcaps and Smallcaps also followed suit, falling -0.3% each. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bears (3:2).

Most sectors closed down. Real Estate (-2.7%) was the top loser, followed by Oil & Gas (-0.8%) and Auto (-0.7%). PSU Banks (+0.8%) and Metals (+0.7%) saw some buying.

Ashok Leyland soared on solid Q3 results. Meanwhile, Vodafone-Idea had a disappointing Q3 show. More details below.

Hexaware Technologies is ready to list AGAIN. Check out our analysis below to help you decide whether you want to subscribe to the IPO.

HAL cracked -5% intraday after a dressing down from the Airforce chief. Meanwhile, equity inflows didn’t fall too much in January. More details below.

MSCI rejig. Hyundai Motor India got added to the Global Standard Index, while Adani Green Energy was removed. PS - IndusInd Bank, Varun Beverages and Torrent Pharma all saw their weightages upped.

Brokerage reactions. ITC Hotels (+2%) was in focus after Jefferies initiated coverage on the stock; United Breweries got a buy rating from Anand Rathi, which sees +27% rally from current levels.

Cyient DLM was up +4% after signing a deal with Boeing for precision-machined parts.

Q3 reactions. Gensol Engineering crashed -14% after reporting a drop in profits. Berger Paints (+2%) posted better than expected profit numbers.

Here are the closing prints:

Nifty

23,045

-0.1%

Sensex

76,171

-0.2%

Bank Nifty

49,479

+0.2%

Earnings
Earnings Roundup

Ashok Leyland (+7%) jumped after a solid Q3 show. Decent demand across its core MHCV segment and bus vertical bumped up the topline. Even export volumes grew +33% YoY.

A push for product premiumisation and better cost controls aided margins and pushed up profits. Lastly, the firm also turned cash positive in Q3FY25 vs net debt of Rs 1,747 cr in Q3FY24! Fun fact: while the YoY growth numbers look decent but not great, the company did in fact report its highest-ever quarterly revenue, EBITDA and profit! 

CEO Shenu Agarwal said: 

“Relative to Q2, the MHCV market has revived significantly in Q3, and is expected to improve further as we enter the last quarter. Our focus remains on profitable growth through product premiumization, cost leadership, better service reach and enhanced value-added services.” (emphasis added).

Here is its Q3 report card:

  • Revenue: Rs 9, 479 cr; +2% YoY

  • EBITDA: Rs 1,211 cr; +9% YoY

  • EBITDA Margin: 12.78% vs 12.1% YoY

  • PAT: Rs 762 cr; +31% YoY

Ashok Leyland is +28% over the last year.

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Vodafone Idea’s (-5%) Q3 results missed Street estimates. The telco’s overall subscriber count continued to bleed, down 5 million QoQ, with its 4G user base basically flat. A small bump in average revenue per user (ARPU), helped by tariff hikes, lifted up margins and narrowed its net losses.  But let’s be clear, the picture still isn’t pretty. PS - CLSA has a target price of just Rs 6 p/sh; -28% downside from current levels!!! 

Here are its key stats:

  • Revenue: Rs 11,117 cr; +2% QoQ (vs Est Rs 11,363 cr)

  • EBITDA: Rs 4,712 cr; +4% QoQ (vs Est: Rs 4,808 cr)

  • EBITDA Margin: Rs 42.4% vs 41.6% QoQ

  • Net Loss: Rs 6,609 cr; vs Rs 7,176 cr loss last quarter

  • ARPU: Rs 173 vs Rs 166 QoQ

Vodafone Idea is -42% over the last year.

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