Tale of the Tape 

Hiya ya’ll.

Nifty (-0.4%) and Sensex (-0.3%) fell for a second day as investors nervously waited for the RBI’s rate cut decision tomorrow. Midcaps (-1.3%) took a hit while Smallcaps (-0.3%) saw minor losses. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bears (3:2).

Most sectors ended in the red. Real Estate (-2.2%), Pharma (-1%) and Auto (-0.9%) were the top losers. Pharma (+0.6%) and IT (+0.3%) saw some buying.

Indian Rupee closed at a new all-time low of Rs 87.58 against the US Dollar.

Swiggy cracked -6% as Q3 losses widened. Read our top story to understand why most brokerages are cutting their price targets.

Trent was the top Nifty loser after growth worries. Meanwhile, SBI (-2%) dipped on muted margins. More details below.

Sula Vineyards, Sagility India and Reliance Power saw big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Triveni Engineering rallied over +5% intraday after inking a deal with Rolls Royce to collab on marine gas turbine opportunities.

Solar Industries cracked -6% after warning investors it would mostly not meet its FY25 revenue guidance.

Vishnu Chemicals rose +3% after Emkay said they see a +23% upside from current levels.

Q3 reactions. KPI Green Energy was locked in a +5% upper circuit after its Q3 profit jumped +67% YoY. Exicom Tele-Systems hit a -10% lower circuit after slipping into losses.

Here are the closing prints:

Stock
Swiggy Needs To Deliver Profits!

Swiggy cracked -7% intraday after being hit with a flurry of target price cuts. Its Q3 results are the big trigger. Let’s get into it.

First off, the good stuff. The food delivery vertical is decent, with its topline growing +21% YoY. This was helped by a +19% YoY bump in gross order value (GOV) + adding 200k new average MTUs over Q2. Fun fact: this means Swiggy’s food delivery GOV grew faster than Zomato’s in Q3. This was largely due to its Bolt service (10-min deliveries), which now accounts for ~10% of overall food orders.

Then there’s the bad stuff. Quick commerce GOV grew just ~16% QoQ, lower than estimates of +20% QoQ and a LOT lower than Zomato’s (+27% QoQ). More importantly, EBITDA margins crashed to -14.8% vs -10.6% in Q2. This is because the company said its “brought forward” investments -- aka burning cash to deal with competition.

Why this is important: Analysts thought food delivery was a dead-end and quick commerce was the future. While this broadly holds, QC is seeing a LOT of headwinds in the short-term and food delivery is turning out better.

Go deeper: The days of insane competition are back. Take a look at some examples. Swiggy added 90 new dark stores for Instarmart in January 2025, that's MORE than it added the whole of Q3! Ad spends & sales promotions also jumped +65% YoY to hit Rs 751 cr. It’s no surprise then that Swiggy’s losses widened in Q3. Here are its key stats;

• Revenue: Rs 3,993 cr; +11% YoY (vs Est: Rs 4,019 cr)

• EBITDA Loss: Rs 726 cr vs Rs 554 cr QoQ

• Net Loss:  Rs 799 cr vs Rs 626 cr QoQ (vs Est: Rs 620 cr)

TL;DR: It's a race to the bottom yet again at a time when urban consumption is in the dumps. While Swiggy has maintained medium-term growth projections, all bets are off for the next few quarters. FYI - Bernstein has cut its target price to Rs 575 p/sh vs Rs 635 p/sh earlier.

Stocktwits Specials
Best Time To Buy FMCG Stocks!

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