Tale of the Tape 

Howdy folks. Welcome back to the Daily Rip!

Nifty and Sensex barely moved as investors sat on the sidelines ahead of a possible US-India trade deal. Midcaps (-0.3%) and Smallcaps (-0.4%) closed with minor cuts. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bears (3:2).

Most sectors ended in the red. FMCG (+1.7%) and Oil & Gas (+0.4%) bucked the broader market trend. IT (-0.8%) and Metals (-0.6%) witnessed selling pressure.

SEBI’s crackdown on Jane Street could send off more ripples across the market. Read our top story for what comes next.

Travel Food Services IPO kicked off today. Check out our analysis below to help you decide whether to subscribe.

FMCG stocks were on a roll today. Look at their charts below to find out why.

Jubilant Foodworks cracked -4% after its Q1 update showed that its Turkey biz posted a -2% YoY decline in LFL growth. Senco Gold was up +4% on a solid Q1 biz update. 

Jaiprakash Power (+20%) was the top NSE 500 gainer after reports said Adani could acquire it through the insolvency route.

Borosil Renewables was up +4% after reports said the closure of its German arm could expand its India focus.

Market
More Jane Street Drama

The dust around SEBI’s Jane Street crackdown is starting to settle, but there may be an even bigger fallout in the days to come. Experts say market intermediary stocks could be in the line of fire if things go south. Here’s what you need to know.

The big problem is that this episode could cause F&O trading volumes to drop. This has a cascading effect across the ecosystem. At the most basic level, there are companies like Nuvama Wealth which served as a broker for Jane Street and earned fat commissions. There’s no evidence Nuvama did anything wrong, but it now stands to lose a decent chunk of that business, with Jefferies estimating an ~8% earnings hit. PS - the stock crashed on Friday, but recovered today due to unrelated news.

Then there are stock exchanges which benefited from the larger F&O game. Derivatives account for a majority of NSE and BSE’s turnover. But foreign investors account for less than 10% of that. For BSE, analysts expect that a 100 bps impact on FY26 premiums could result in a 70 bps profitability hit.

Finally, there’s all brokers in general. A hit to market sentiment sucks for all, especially if it hurts retail investor enthusiasm. FYI - there are two schools of thought here. There’s people like Angel One boss Dinesh Thakkar who say the Jane Street crackdown will deepen & diversify India’s F&O market. This is because SEBI’s moves will lead to greater trust & retail participation’ -- aka ‘Acha, now I can invest because there are no crooks in the market’.

On the other hand, Zerodha’s Nithin Kamath says the problem could just be starting. Kamath estimates that nearly ~50% of India’s options trading volumes come from prop traders like Jane Street. And reports already say SEBI could widen its probe to include other traders & indices. If it’s clear the job is not done, people may pull back. Experts say keep a close eye on F&O volumes moving ahead to see how this shakes out!