Tale of the Tape 

Hola Amigos! Markets were volatile AF! 

Nifty (-0.3%) and Sensex (-0.2%) AGAIN failed to hold on to their morning gains and closed in the red. Midcaps (+0.2%) were up while Smallcaps (+1.1%) popped off. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bulls (3:2). Check out the Stocktwits Sentiment Meter:

Most sectors ended lower. Real Estate (+2.1%) and Media (+0.6%) were the top gainers. Metals (-1.4%) and Auto (-0.8%) saw profit booking.

Reliance Industries (-2%) brought down markets after a disappointing Q2. Read our top story below for more details.

This metal forgings stock could see a whopping +43% upside in the next year. More details below.

Angel One, HDFC Life and Sunteck Realty saw big movements today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

HCL Tech (+1%) was in focus after slightly raising its FY25 revenue guidance.

Network 18 (+10%) and TV Broadcast18 (+8%) gained after Reliance said the Disney media merger would be completed by Q3FY25.

Oil stocks were up after Brent crude prices fell -5%. Indian Oil (+1%), BPCL (+3%) and HPCL (+5%) saw decent gains.

Ola Electric gained +5% intraday after strong sales during the festive season bumped up its market share to 34%. 

Results reaction. Newgen Software (-4%) reported a 47% QoQ jump in PAT. PVRINOX (+2%) posted a net loss of 12 cr in Q2. 

Va Tech Wabag (+2%) hit a record high after bagging a Rs 1,000 cr desalination project from Indosol Solar.

Here are the closing prints:

Earnings
Reliance Industries Q2 Review

Reliance Industries fell -2% after its disappointing Q2 results. FYI - it has three major verticals: O2C (oil to chemicals), Jio and retail. O2C is the main cash cow and hasn’t been doing well for a couple quarters. FYI - the oil biz’s EBITDA fell -24% YoY on the back of weak demand-supply conditions. Fun fact: the margins of all Asian refiners on average have fallen -31% YTD and RIL is no exception!

On top of this, Reliance Retail’s gross revenue fell -1% YoY despite an increase in store footfalls, indicating muted consumer sentiment. All of this led to its bottom line missing estimates and falling for three straight quarters in a row. Whew.

The only bright spot was that Jio did pretty well. Overall subscribers hit ~48 cr, +4% YoY. Also, the ‘average revenue per user’ hit Rs 195.1; (+7% QoQ). A large part of this is due to tariff hikes (which kicked in July) and its 5G infra rollout paying dividends.

Here is Reliance’s Q2 report card:

• Revenue: Rs 2.35 lakh cr (vs Est: Rs 2.34 lakh cr)

• Profit: Rs 16,563 cr; -4.8% YoY (vs Est: Rs 17,200 cr)

Big Picture: RIL has been having a rough time, with the stock down -8% in the last month. Both O2C and Retail need a bunch of things to change, but it’s not clear when that will happen. For the oil segment, China needs to bounce back so overall demand improves. For retail, urban consumption is tepid but that hasn’t stopped other companies putting up a decent show. Stronger execution is the key here.

FYI - Motial Oswal has cut its target price to Rs 3,255 p/sh vs Rs 3,410 p/sh earlier. SEBI RA Priyank Sharma expects a restest of 2560-2590 levels in this ongoing weakness.

Stocktwits Specials
What Next For Ola!?

Ola Electric has been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately. The stock is down -40% from its all-time high but is the worst behind us or is there more pain in store? Find out as we break down the company’s pros & cons, fundamentals and technicals in our latest video.