Tale of the Tape 

Good evening boys and girls. Markets snapped their 8-day gaining streak.

Nifty and Sensex ended with minor cuts after a late bout of profit booking. Sluggishness in largecap heavyweights + SEBI’s comments on weekly F&O expiry dampened the sentiment. Investors were also cautious ahead of the US FOMC meet; while hopes of a US-India trade deal remain a work-in-progress. 

Broader markets fared much better with Midcaps (+0.4%) and Smallcaps (+0.8%) seeing strong buying. The advance-decline ratio (3:2) was in favor of the bulls. Most sectors ended in the green but the gains were muted. Real Estate (+2.4%) was the only noteworthy mover followed by PSU Banks (+0.6%). IT and Pharma dragged lower; -0,6% each. 

In today’s issue of the Daily Rip, we look at why experts are warning of a “bubble” in India’s solar module sector, Yatharth Hospital’s BIG Rs 260 cr bet, why railway stocks were LIT and more. 

Honorable mentions: 

Voda-Idea rallied +7% on hopes of AGR relief. Anant Raj (+10%) was in focus amidst reports of GOI incentives for setting up AI data centres.

Check out the NSE 500 heatmap:

Sector
Bubble Alert!!!

Is India’s solar module manufacturing sector running ahead of reality? 

Recently, market expert Sandip Sabharwal sparked an important debate on X, calling India’s solar module manufacturing sector “the biggest bubble.” He pointed out that while India’s manufacturing capacity is already at 100 GW, annual installations are only around 25 GW. With capacity projected to reach 130-150 GW in the next four years, but annual installations unlikely to cross 50 GW, Sabharwal warns that excessive government protection and incentives may be fueling unsustainable growth.

Let’s play devil’s advocate and dig deeper. Sabharwal’s numbers highlight a real risk: overcapacity could leave factories idle and manufacturers struggling if domestic demand doesn’t catch up. But is there a way out? One possible release valve is exports.

India’s solar exports have surged, especially to the U.S., which currently absorbs the vast majority of India’s module shipments. Exporting helps utilize excess capacity and brings in revenue. However, this solution has its own pitfalls. Relying heavily on a single market is risky—U.S. trade policies can shift quickly cough Trump Tariffs cough adding to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, Europe, another potential market, is considering carbon tariffs that could make Indian exports less competitive.

Globally, PV module prices are under constant pressure due to oversupply, squeezing margins for both domestic sellers and exporters. Plus, since India still depends on imported cells and wafers, supply chain vulnerabilities persist.

In short, while exports offer some relief, they don’t fully solve the risks, Sabharwal highlights. For India’s solar sector to avoid becoming a bubble, it needs diversified export markets, stronger supply chains, and prudent policy—not just more capacity.