Tale of the Tape 

Good evening folks. Welcome back to the Daily Rip!

Markets failed to hold onto their morning gains with the Nifty and Sensex ending flat-ish. Midcaps and Smallcaps also moved in sync. The advance-decine ratio was in favour of the bears (3:2).

Most sectors ended in the green but the gains were muted. IT (+2.2%) was the star of the day. Oil & Gas (-0.6%) witnessed selling pressure.

If you’re just logging in today after enjoying your Diwali leave, it’s been a pretty crazy week. Gold finally snapped its rally, crude oil spiked after new US sanctions on Russia we may finally be on the cusp of getting a trade deal.

In today’s issue of the newsletter, we take a look at Samvat 2081’s report card and the triggers that lie ahead, Reliance’s big quick commerce push, the textile stock rally and more.

Honourable Mentions:

Infosys (+4%) was the top Nifty gainer after the firm’s promoters opted out of the company’s share buyback. PS - this leaves more on the table for normal investors like me and you! Urban Company slipped -4% after global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley said it sees a further -23% correction from current levels.

Check out the NSE 500 heatmap:

Market
Market Kya Lagta Hai?

Hi guys! It’s no secret the last year has been rough for markets. As Samvat 2082 kicks off, here’s a quick look at the year gone by, the top winners & losers and the way ahead.

If you had to name one flop show since last Diwali, it would be Indian stocks. The Nifty was up just ~6% in Samvat 2081. Not only did this underperform all major Asian rivals, it was also the market’s worst performance in three years. Midcaps (+1%) and Smallcaps (-4%) did even worse. Yes, geopolitical uncertainty and Trump's tariffs played a role. But we also came off an insane rally in 2023-24 which means some correction was warranted. So take the bad with the good.

On the flipside, shiny metals were the big winner. Silver soared +60% over the last year, with gold just behind +55%. Not a surprise; greater turmoil = greater demand for safe-haven assets. Even some agri-commodities like coffee KILLED It, jumping +63% in Samvat 2081. Finally, Brent crude slipped around -17%, which is good for our import bill but is a sign that the global economy & demand isn’t so hot right now.

That said, it’s not all gloomy. Most analysts expect a much better Samvat 2082. This is on the back of micro factors (the correction is now done) but also macro triggers including a GDP recovery, GOI’s tax cuts, RBI’s rate reductions and stronger corporate earnings. The Q2 earnings season was okay-ish and hints at a bottoming out. Brighter-than-expected spots include banks and FMCG. 

And of course, the biggest short-term trigger is the India-US trade deal. And if you go by reports, negotiations are almost done. The latest US sanctions on Russian oil, experts say, should also see Indian refiners finding new suppliers which solves a key pain point between Modi and Trump!

Stocktwits Specials
Top Diwali Picks By Brokerages

We’ve curated a list of top stock picks by broking houses like ICICI Direct, Axis Securities, Kotak Securities, SBI Securities and HDFC Securities. 

In less than 5 minutes, we’ll walk you through these top picks by brokerages with a timeframe of ~12 months and cover key fundamental, technical and news events surrounding these.