Tale of the Tape 

Hey guys. Markets were volatile AF!

Nifty and Sensex ended in the red despite a sharp pullback from the day’s low. Midcap (+0.2%) and Smallcaps (+0.5%) were surprisingly in the green! The market breadth was also positive with 3 stocks gaining for every 2 losers.

It was a mixed-bag kinda day for sectors. Pharma and PSU Banks roared +2% each. On the flip side, IT fell -4% to hit a 9-month low.

The Trump tariff bazooka has been fired! Read our top story to understand the big picture and the sectoral winners & losers.

Dabur, AU Small Finance Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services saw big moves after their Q4 biz updates. More details below.

Pharma stocks were lit. Sun Pharma, Lupin and IPCA Lab rallied between 3%-5% each. Check out their charts below.

Angel One (+4%) was in focus after Kotak said it sees a further +15% upside from current levels.

$PERSISTENT.NSE ( ▼ 0.09% ), $COFORGE.NSE ( ▲ 0.53% ) and $KPITTECH.NSE ( ▼ 0.33% ) were the top 3 losers on NSE500 tracking the weakness in US tech stocks. Fears of a US recession spooked investors.

Bajaj Finance (-1%) got a warning letter from the RBI over procedural lapses in its co-branded credit card business, according to CNBCTV-18.

Tejas Networks rallied +9% after reports claimed that state-run BSNL was preparing a MEGA Rs 61,000 crore 5G expansion. FYI - the company is a key supplier of 4G/5G RAN equipment and routers.

$MARUTI.NSE ( ▲ 0.36% ) hiked car prices by up to Rs 62,000 with effect from April 8.

Order wins. Kirloskar Oil Engines (+3%) won a Rs 270 cr order from the Ministry of Defence. Interarch (+7%) won a new Rs 300 cr order to supply steel building systems.

Here are the closing prints:

Market
Tariff Teardown

Boom! Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are here and have unleashed a GLOBAL TRADE WAR. Insane import taxes have been placed on countries around the world. FYI - India will be hurt as well, but there are a couple of silver linings.

Let’s start with the ugly stuff first. The US president has adopted the worst-case scenario by imposing a uniform tariff across sectors. India’s rate is 27%, with Emkay projecting that this could result in a $30-$33 billion fall in exports. This is much higher than what most experts had expected. Many of India’s key exports including chemicals, gems & jewellery & seafood will be hurt as they either had zero or low tariffs until now. This is partly why stocks like SRF, Navin Fluorine, Avanti Feeds and Coastal Corp fell between -3% and -15% intraday.

There are a couple upsides though. Firstly, some sectors like pharma appear to have been exempted from the reciprocal tariffs. We’re still waiting on the fineprint, but the Nifty Pharma Index was up +2%.

Secondly, and more importantly, India’s tariffs are FAR lower than our regional manufacturing rivals including Vietnam, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Thailand. This opens up HUGE opportunities in key industries like electronics and textiles. This is why KPR Mill, Arvind, Gokuldas Exports and Vardhman Textiles were up between +3% and +20%. Now this doesn’t mean India will automatically start seeing success here, but it does give us a chance.

Big Picture: While there are stock opportunities, don’t kid yourself into thinking all will be OK for India. This is a massive blow to global trade and experts say this could tip the US into a recession as well. It doesn’t matter if our tariffs are lower than Vietnam if American consumers don’t buy things because they’ve been hit by high inflation. This is just Day 1. Take a breath before placing your bets and let’s see how it evolves.

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Ashish Kacholia Portfolio Changes

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