Tale of the Tape 

Hola Amigos. Markets were down BIGGGG!

Nifty and Sensex fell -1.3% each, hurt by a ramp-up in Trump tariff tensions + FII selling. Midcaps (-3%) and Smallcaps (-3.5%) got KO-ed. Only 23 stocks in the NSE 500 managed to end in the green! 

It was a sea of red across sectors. Real Estate (-3.1%) was the top loser; the Nifty Realty Index officially entered a bear market. Auto (-2.3%), PSU Banks (-2.2%) and Energy (-2.1%) also came under heavy selling pressure.

Trent has quickly become the ugly duckling of 2025 so far. Read our top story to understand what’s ailing the retail super stock and the road ahead.

Eicher Motors was the top Nifty loser after its Q3 missed estimates. Sequent Scientific fell despite a decent Q3 show. More details below.

Devyani International, Escorts Kubota and Keystone Realtors saw big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

Adani Power jumped +4% intraday after the Bangladesh Govt asked it to fully restore power supplies after a 3-month gap. 

UBL was in focus after Telangana hikes beer prices by 15%.

Brokerage reactions. Torrent Power cracked -5% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock; Meanwhile, Muthoot Finance was in focus after CLSA upgraded the stock; it sees +10% upside from current levels.

C2C Advanced Systems hit a -5% lower circuit after an independent probe raised red flags in its RHP.

Q3 updates. Nykaa was up +3% intraday before giving up gains after reporting a +51% YoY rise in profit. Meanwhile, TVS Supply (-4%) fell after slipping into losses.

Here are the closing prints:

Stock
Trent: Buy The Dip Or Avoid?

Trent has had a brutal start to 2025. The stock, which was the poster boy of 2024, is down -26% YTD! Everyone wanted to buy it at Rs 8,000 p/sh, but seemingly nobody wants to touch it now at Rs 5,200 p/sh. Should you buy the dip or is there more pain ahead? There’s three big factors at play here:

1) The slowdown: Trent’s growth is cooling. FYI - in Q2FY25, standalone revenue growth came in below the 50%+-mark for the first time since Q4FY21. This dip continued in Q3, with growth coming in at +37% YoY. A single digit like-for-like growth further reinforces this slowdown. FYI - this is still industry-leading growth but shows that even Trent isn’t immune to the broader urban consumption dip.

2) Stiff competition: Investors have been jittery over China’s Shein re-entering the Indian market with the help of Reliance. Shein specialises in affordable fashion which is Trent’s stronghold. But experts feel that these worries are overblown. Shein is just an online retailer, which doesn’t translate to profits for cheaper products. “...Even in a best-case scenario for operating costs, this would lead to poor unit economics,” says Goldman Sachs on Shein.

3) Future trajectory: Trent’s secret sauce has been its Zudio chain. FYI - Zudio has just a ~1% market share, with analysts projecting it to triple to ~3.5% over the next 5 years. That’s a BIG runway. That said, there are potential issues. The firm quickly expanded its store network, but is now realising it needs a “portfolio optimisation strategy” -- aka upgrading or consolidating smaller footprint stores. There’s basically no details on this, whether it will involve greater capex or whether it’s an admission that expansion misfired in some areas.

Big Picture: For the Trent defenders, yes there’s a broader market correction. And yes it's healthy for valuations to cool down! But there’s things it needs to work out. FYI - Jefferies is cautious, with a target price of Rs 5,800 p/sh, which is still 12% higher from current levels!

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