Tale of the Tape 

Good evening everyone. Markets were volatile AF today!

Nifty and Sensex went from deep red at open to full recovery by noon before giving up all the gains to end -0.4% lower. Ditto for both Midcaps (-0.9%) and Smallcaps (-1.1%). The overall market breadth was negative, with 372 stocks in the NSE 500 ending down.

Across sectors, FMCG (+1.4%) was the only one to buck the market trend. Oil & Gas (-1.5%), Pharma (-1.3%) and Metals (-1.2%) got beaten up the most. 

In today’s issue of the Daily Rip, we breakdown Trump’s tariff bazooka and its impact on India Inc, Q1 results review of HUL and Kaynes Technology, trending charts and more…

Honourable mentions:

Nuvama Wealth was down -3% after reports said tax officials raided its offices as part of the Jane Street case. Meanwhile, HEG jumped +7% on strong Q1 results. JSW Steel (+2%) was in focus after the Supreme Court reopened the Bhushan Power case.

Check out the NSE500 heatmap:

Market
M.A.G.A → Make America Gareeb Again!

The India-US relationship is exploding spectacularly! Not only do we not have a trade deal yet, but Trump yesterday said we would be hit with 25% tariffs + an unspecified ‘penalty’ for buying Russian oil & defence equipment starting from August 1. This sucks, but it’s also not the end of the world. 

Here’s what you need to know…

Macro impact: Analysts are predicting a 20-50 bps hit to India’s GDP over the medium-term. This implies roughly ~30% of Indian exports to the US could be shaved off. Not ideal, but in the long run, it’s a broken finger and not a terminal diagnosis.  PS - these estimates don’t include the Russia penalty… because we have no idea WTF it will end up being. So the overall hit could be slightly worse. 

Sectoral Impact: Two of our biggest exports, smartphones & pharma, are currently exempt from tariffs. So that’s a relief. But we should see a big impact on textiles, gems & jewellery, seafood, machinery and chemicals. Some of the industries (like textiles or jewellery) work on thin margins so the tariff will result in higher prices, which in turn means American customers will buy less. Other sectors like seafood will be hit because they’ll lose market share to competitors with lower tariff rates (like Ecuador).

FII Impact: Unfortunately, this could hurt our ‘safe haven’ perception, especially if with the Russia penalty our tariffs go to +30%. Several experts say brace yourself for FII outflows in H2-2025.

So does that mean all hope for a deal is gone? Well, no. Trump added that negotiations are still ongoing. And even apart from that, India and the US are working to finalise a larger bilateral trade deal by October. So hold tight until then.The only real risk is that Modi and Trump both refuse to blink, prolonging this uncertainty.

Big Picture: India needs the right deal, one that puts us at par with rivals like Vietnam and Japan so we can tap into the grand China+1 strategy. Without one, exporters will see immediate pain -- and you should definitely take it into account if you’re placing short-term bets.