Tale of the Tape 

Good evening everyone!

Markets extended their gains for a second straight day, with $NIFTY50.NSE ( ▼ 0.68% ) and Sensex (+0.8%) ending higher. Midcaps (+0.4%) and Smallcaps (+1.3%) saw a solid bump too. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bulls (4;1).

Except Real Estate (-0.2%), all other sectors ended in the green. Oil & Gas (+2.6%) and Pharma (+1.5%) were the top gainers.

India may be hit by Trump’s tariffs on April 2. Read our top story on which sectors can be hit and how it also may be an opportunity.

Is $RELIANCE.NSE ( ▼ 0.83% ) set for a solid 2025? More details below on the bluechip’s bull case.

Oil companies had a solid day. Check out their charts below to find out why. In other news, $ASIANPAINT.NSE ( ▼ 0.38% ) was the top Nifty gainer after oil prices hit a 3-year low.

$CASTROLIND.NSE ( ▼ 1.34% ) soared +10% after reports said Saudi Aramco was weighing a bid for BP’s lubricant business.

$BSE.NSE ( ▼ 1.2% ) was down -2% after Goldman Sachs cut its target price for the second time this week.

$GENSOL.NSE ( ▼ 2.0% ) was locked in a -10% lower circuit AGAIN despite the company’s management denying the fraud allegations.

$BRITANNIA.NSE ( ▼ 0.15% ) (-1%) was in focus after its CEO abruptly resigned.

Here are the closing prints:

Market
Explained: Impact of Trump Tariffs

Trump reciprocal tariffs are on their way and will hit India on April 2! FYI - the GOI is working on a trade deal, but we don’t know if it will save us at this point. In the worst-case scenario, here’s a cheat sheet on what to expect.

1) Chemicals: The US is a big market for specialty chemical firms and the tariff differential is currently 7%. If this is slapped on India, Citi Research estimates the EBITDA impact will be -12% for PI Industries, -5% for Navin Fluorine and -4% for SRF. Some of this impact could be lessened if higher tariffs are passed onto US customers. On the flipside, with US tariffs on Chinese chemicals still being higher, it could boost volumes for firms like Jubilant Ingrevia (the only non-Chinese pyridine maker globally) and UPL.

2) Auto ancillaries: Component makers are already starting to feel the heat because many of them work with US players who have production operations in Mexico! A further auto tariff would also hurt. Bharat Forge, Sona BLW, Sundaram Fasteners and Balkrishna Industries get 15%-43% of their revenue from the US. FYI - Sona BLW and JK Tyre have plants themselves in Mexico, which places them at big risk for increased costs + supply chains challenges! 

3) Metals: India exports a relatively small amount of steel, while aluminum exports account for 5%-6% of production. What players are worried is that India will be hit by dumping not just from China, but also South Korea, Japan and Vietnam. A global supply glut will also hit prices, which isn’t good news for metal producers including SAIL, JSW Steel and Tata Steel!

Big picture: India is a tariff abuser. Nomura says we impose a 9.5% weighted average effective tariff on US imports, but the US only imposes a 3% tariff on Indian imports. It’s this ~6% difference that Trump is targeting. That said, keep in mind that if tariffs imposed on China (a major competitor across sectors) are higher, Indian exporters could still come out with a W!

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