Tale of the Tape 

Howdy folks!

Nifty and Sensex ended flat for a second day in a row. On the other hand, Midcaps (-0.9%) and Smallcaps (-1.7%) saw deep cuts. The advance-decline ratio was in favour of the bears (4:1). Check out the Stocktwits Sentiment Meter:

Most sectors ended in the red. PSU Banks (-2.2%) saw the most selling pressure, followed by Energy (-0.6%). Real Estate (+1.9%) bucked the market trend.

The rally in gold prices has been crazy. Is it too late to join the party? Read our top story to find out.

Bajaj Finance cracked -5% on growth concerns. Meanwhile, Vishal Mega Mart was locked in a +10% upper circuit on a solid Q4 show. More details below.

CEAT, Blue Jet Healthcare and Premier Explosives saw big moves today. Check out their charts below to find out why.

IndusInd Bank was in focus after its CEO finally resigned.

Q4 reactions. Exide Industries cracked -6% after its profit fell -11% YoY. Praj Industries fell -9% after its topline was down -16% YoY.

Ather Energy IPO sailed through on the final day of bidding.

Commodity
Gold(en) Rally

Gold has rallied over +30% since the last Akshya Tritiya, easily beating the Nifty! The big question: with the yellow metal at Rs 99k per 10 gram mark, should you still be buying? Tbh, it’s tough. So that’s why we put together this quick cheat sheet for you.

Allocation 101: If you look at them separately, Nifty outperforms gold in the long-run. So if you had to buy only one, choose equity. But gold is an important hedge. Capitalmind’s calculations show portfolios with just ~10% gold allocation achieve better risk-adjusted returns. Also, a 50:50 portfolio of gold & Nifty outperforms standalone investments over more than two decades! Of course, that needs to be rebalanced systematically every year, which can be tough if you don’t have help…

But with gold hitting an ATH just last week, a further rally depends on these factors:

• A weaker dollar. Since gold is bought globally in dollars, a weak USD helps foreign buyers buy more gold!

• Central bank buying. They snap up gold to hedge against currency fluctuations, which happens when inflation goes haywire as it has over the last few years.

• Geopolitical uncertainty. This has been the biggest trigger lately. Gold is primarily a safe-haven asset. So if the Russia-Ukraine war gets worse and if the tariff issue wrecks the global economy… gold will continue to shoot up! On the other hand, if they get resolved, we could see a big correction as well.

For now, most experts don’t see a drastic fall. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025-end forecast to $3,700 (vs the current $,3,313) with a potential peak of a whopping $4,500. While domestic gold prices aren’t too different, Motilal Oswal has a current long-term target of Rs 1.06 lakh per 10 grams!

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